IOSG predicts that 2025 could be the worst year for the cryptocurrency market, as the OG/LTH investor group is expected to sell a total of approximately 1.4 million BTC during the period from 03/2024 to 11/2025.
This forecast is based on a multi-phase distribution model rather than a single boom like the cycles of 2013, 2017, and 2021, in the context that BTC has been accumulating at the peak for 1 year and the amount of BTC that has been inactive for more than 2 years is decreasing since the beginning of 2024.
MAIN CONTENT
2025 is predicted to be the worst year due to the multi-phase distribution of OG/LTH.
LTH may sell about 1.4 million BTC (121.17 billion USD) from 03/2024–11/2025.
Price scenario: short term 87,000–95,000 USD; medium term target 120,000–150,000 USD.
Forecast for multi-phase BTC distribution by 11/2025
Jocy (founding partner of IOSG) believes that OG investors will go through 3 waves of selling, with cumulative LTH selling about 1.4 million BTC, estimated at 121.17 billion USD, from 03/2024 to 11/2025.
The three waves described include: wave 1 (late 2023–early 2024) associated with ETF approval, when BTC rises from 25,000 USD to 73,000 USD; wave 2 (late 2024) linked to Trump's election, BTC strongly rising towards 100,000 USD; wave 3 (2025) when BTC maintains above 100,000 USD for an extended period.
The difference compared to the cycles of 2013, 2017, 2021 is the multi-phase distribution and extended duration. Jocy also emphasizes that BTC has accumulated at the peak for 1 year, a situation never seen before; meanwhile, 1.6 million BTC (about 140 billion USD) that have not moved for over 2 years are gradually decreasing since the beginning of 2024.
Price scenario according to 3 time frames
IOSG presents the view that risks come with opportunities, and provides price expectation milestones for BTC in the short term, medium term, and long term based on organizational, policy, and electoral factors.
Short term (3–6 months): expected to fluctuate in the range of 87,000–95,000 USD, while institutions continue to build positions. Medium term (first half of 2026): driven by both policy and organizational factors, targeting 120,000–150,000 USD.
Long term (second half of 2026): increased volatility, dependent on election results and the continuity of policy.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/iosg-2025-te-nhat-btc-150-000usd-2026/
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