The Bitcoin price is often in the spotlight, but among analysts and institutional strategists, attention is increasingly shifting to other matters.
Instead of discussing whether Bitcoin can regain upward momentum in the short term, market followers are increasingly focusing on a deeper question: are the structural signals that once reliably drove Bitcoin's four-year cycle now changing?
Analysts are no longer looking at the Bitcoin price as demand signals quietly deteriorate.
This shift is due to decreasing demand, rising exchange flows, and a growing gap between analysts.
Some believe that Bitcoin is now entering a traditional correction after the peak. Others say that the largest crypto is breaking out of its historical cycle.
Analyst Daan Crypto Trades believes that the recent price behavior is already challenging one of the most reliable seasonal effects of Bitcoin.
“When we look at BTC: Q1 is often a good quarter for Bitcoin, but Q4 should have been as well, and that didn’t happen this time. No doubt that 2025 has been very messy. There have been large inflows and treasury accumulation, which were offset by large OG whales and sales according to the 4-year cycle. Q1 2026 will be the moment when Bitcoin can show whether the 4-year cycle remains or not,” he wrote.
It does not immediately indicate a real trend reversal, but rather friction. ETF inflows and accumulation by companies are now being offset by sales from long-term holders, reducing the impact on the BTC price.
This structural tension is also visible in the American spot market. According to Kyle Doops, the Coinbase Bitcoin premium, often seen as a gauge for American institutional demand, remains persistently negative.
This does not indicate capitulation, but rather hesitation. Capital is present, but people do not want to chase the price.
Exchange flows indicate distribution, not accumulation
On-chain data shows that caution is needed, as Bitcoin exchange inflows rise to levels that historically fit late-cycle behavior.
“Monthly exchange flows have risen to $10.9 billion, the highest level since May 2021. Such high exchange flows mean that selling pressure is increasing, as investors send their assets to exchanges to sell, take profits, or hedge against declines. This is an additional sign of a market top and the beginning of a bear market under greater volatility,” said analyst Jacob King.
In the past, such peaks mainly occurred during profit-taking periods and not at the beginning of new accumulation phases.
According to on-chain analyst Ali Charts, despite structural changes, the timing of the Bitcoin cycle remains striking.
“Bitcoin price cycles follow a remarkably fixed pattern – both in timing and magnitude. Historically, it takes about 1,064 days from market bottom to market top and about 364 days from market top back to the next bottom,” he wrote, showing how previous cycles followed that rhythm.
If this pattern persists, the analyst believes that the market may now be in a corrective phase. Previous declines indicate further downward movement before a strong reset occurs again.
At the institutional level, opinions are divided, without major panic. Sean Farrell, Head of Crypto Strategy at Fundstrat, acknowledges the current pressure but remains positive in the long term.
“Bitcoin is now in a valuation 'no man's land,'” said Farrell. He points to ETF outflows, sales by original holders, pressure from miners, and macro uncertainty. Still, he adds: “I still expect Bitcoin and Ethereum to test new all-time highs this year, thus concluding the traditional four-year cycle with a shorter, smaller bear market.”
The cycle discussion is now institutional
Tom Lee shares this view, and his opinion is widely discussed within the crypto community. According to him, Bitcoin will soon break out of the four-year cycle.
Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer thinks just the opposite. According to Lark Davis, Timmer believes that the peak in October for Bitcoin was both a time and price high, and that “2026... will be a bad year,” with support in the $65,000–$75,000 range.
These differing views show why analysts are no longer looking solely at the Bitcoin price. The next step of the largest crypto may not determine who is right, but whether the trusted model for this market still applies.
