Bitcoin has experienced volatile price movements recently, with both significant volatility and uncertain recovery attempts. BTC has recovered from a temporary decline, but the momentum remains fragile.
The key issue is the weakening confidence among major investors in Bitcoin, which may make broader price recovery efforts more difficult.
Bitcoin holders are seeing reduced profits.
Long-term Bitcoin holders have increased selling activity in recent days. On-chain data shows that the change in supply of long-term holders over 30 days has dropped to a 20-month low.
This similar level last occurred in April 2024, reflecting increased pressure to distribute coins.
This behavior indicates that long-term holders are reducing their holdings to protect remaining profits. As unrealized profits decrease, individuals are rushing to sell to avoid losses, which tends to pressure price recovery when supply increases without new demand to offset it.
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Macroeconomic indicators also reinforce this context. The net unrealized profit or loss metric of long-term holders has dropped to a monthly low. This decline reflects that the profits of this group are being eroded, and everyone is becoming more sensitive to price declines.
Historically, when LTH's NUPL numbers decrease, defensive selling tends to occur. However, as those numbers continue to decline, selling pressure often starts to slow down.
At these levels, long-term holders have stopped distributing coins, allowing Bitcoin's price to stabilize and potentially recover if demand increases.
Bitcoin is trading near 87,900 USD at the time of writing this article, remaining below the resistance level of 88,210 USD. The asset recently recovered after briefly falling below the support level of 86,247 USD. This recovery indicates that buyers are still active at lower price levels, even though sentiment remains cautious.
A short-term rise to 90,308 USD remains possible. However, resistance near that level may limit profit margins since long-term holders continue to sell, so Bitcoin may move in an accumulation range around 88,201 USD first, while the market absorbs the excess supply.
The chances of a rise will improve if long-term holders change their stance, as a slowdown in selling will help reduce supply pressure.
In this case, Bitcoin may break above 90,308 USD and aim for 92,933 USD. This movement will eliminate the bearish trend while sending new confidence signals among key market players.
