Christmas Week Market Outlook: Federal Reserve Nomination Uncertainty Remains, Key Data and Market Closure Arrangements Overview

This week, the market will usher in the Christmas holiday trading, with the US stock market trading schedule adjusted to: early close on Wednesday, closed all day on Thursday for Christmas; the Hong Kong Stock Exchange will also implement a half-day market on Wednesday, and the New York Stock Exchange will close early at 02:00 Beijing time on December 25; during the holiday period, market liquidity may tighten, and volatility risks need to be closely monitored.

The core focus is on the confirmation of the Federal Reserve Chairman nominee—Trump has clearly determined the candidate, and it is highly likely to be officially announced during the Christmas period. Currently, the nomination probabilities show significant divergence: Kevin Hassett, Director of the National Economic Council, leads significantly with a probability of about 54%, as his position advocating aggressive interest rate cuts aligns closely with the White House's demands; former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh ranks second with a 21% probability, followed closely by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller at 14%. The final nomination result will directly impact market expectations for interest rate cuts and asset pricing logic.

Next week’s important macro events and data are summarized as follows:

• Tuesday: The core economic data for the third quarter of the United States will be released, including the initial value of the real GDP annualized quarterly rate (previous value growth of 2.8%, below market expectations), the initial value of real personal consumption expenditures quarterly rate (previous value growth of 3.7%, a major driver of economic growth), and the initial value of the core PCE price index annualized quarterly rate. The data performance will further clarify inflation and economic resilience, providing a reference for the Federal Reserve's policy path;

• Wednesday: The Bank of Canada will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting, which will disclose the logical considerations behind the interest rate decision; meanwhile, initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending December 20 will be released, reflecting the degree of labor market looseness;

• Thursday: Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will deliver a speech at the Japan Economic Club, possibly signaling a monetary policy adjustment; Japan's November unemployment rate data will also be released, providing evidence for Japan's economic recovery. #美国非农数据超预期 #加密市场观察 #比特币波动性