The price of Bitcoin has been in a sideways trend for most of December. This has frustrated both buying and selling pressures. In the short term, there has been volatility, but as the year-end approaches, the overall structure still remains in a box range.
Bitcoin has risen about 5% over the past 30 days. However, there has been almost no fluctuation over the past week. This lack of direction shows the market's hesitation. Meanwhile, recent on-chain data suggests that something is changing, especially in the spot market. Buying pressure has surged, raising a crucial question: Will this change in demand help Bitcoin break through its strongest resistance level (wall) in the short term?
Whale and exchange outflows... buying pressure rising
In the past few days, two on-chain signals have stood out. One is the behavior of whales (large-scale investors) and the other is the outflow from exchanges.
First, the number of entities holding more than 1,000 Bitcoins began to increase again after a sharp drop on December 17. This indicator tracks large holders commonly referred to as whales. An increase in this figure means that large investors are focusing more on buying than on selling.
Since December 20, the number of this large investor has been gradually increasing. It is still slightly lower than the recent six-month high, but the directionality is important. As Bitcoin prices stabilize, whales are cautiously increasing their exposure.
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Secondly, changes in exchange net positions also show strong buying activity. This indicator measures the number of coins entering or leaving centralized exchanges. When more coins exit exchanges, it often means that investors are moving Bitcoin to their wallets, reducing immediate selling pressure.
On December 19, the Bitcoin exchange outflow was about 26,098 BTC. On December 21, the outflow surged to 41,493 BTC. This is a 59% increase in net outflow in just two days.
This difference is significant. The buying pressure from whales is steady but has only seen slight increases. However, exchange outflows are rising much more rapidly. This indicates that not only whales but also regular and mid-sized investors are actively entering the market, showing an overall increase in spot demand.
In summary of these two signals, while the price has not yet broken through, it can be confirmed that buying pressure in the spot market is rising.
Bitcoin, what price range will determine its future direction?
The key is how this buying pressure plays a role at important Bitcoin price levels.
The most important resistance level (wall) is located near $89,250. This range has continuously hindered attempts to rise since mid-December, and has failed several times at breaking above it. Until Bitcoin definitely closes above this range, the market will remain within a box range.
If buying pressure breaks above $89,250 again, Bitcoin may attempt to move toward one of the strongest resistance zones on the chart, near $96,700. This price range has hindered several rises and will be the next important turning point.
Conversely, on the downside, $87,590 is a key short-term support level. If this level is clearly broken down, $83,550 will be exposed, and if selling pressure increases, the risk may extend to $80,530.
In summary, Bitcoin is being squeezed between rising buying pressure and a stubborn resistance line. Whales are cautiously increasing their purchases, exchange outflows are accelerating, and prices are reaching a critical crossroads. Whether Bitcoin successfully breaks through now depends on one question: Can this surge in demand truly break the $89,250 resistance? Or will the price range continue until the New Year?
