Friends, today's trending data is spine-chilling. The new token to be issued in 2025 has 85% fallen below the issue price, and the venture capital halo and ecological narrative have all become waste paper! Those KOLs shouting 'hundred times potential,' are they secretly deleting tweets now? As someone who has witnessed three rounds of bull and bear markets and warned about the 519 crash, I can say: this is not a cold winter; it's the market cleansing speculative cancer!
1. High FDV issuance: A 'precision massacre' targeting retail investors.
Data doesn't lie: Among the 118 TGEs completed in 2025, 100 tokens are priced below the issue price, and the median FDV has plummeted by 71%! Syndicate's market value evaporated by 92%, and star projects like Animecoin and Berachain have been cut down again and again. The reason is simple:
Private placement reaps early harvest: institutions lock in at a cost of $0.001, and by the time of TGE, the valuation has surged to billions of dollars; retail investors take over at the peak.
Liquidity trap: the average daily trading volume of new tokens is less than one million dollars, and a whale sell-off can trigger a flash crash; community consensus is fragile in the face of algorithms.
VC arbitrage closed loop: venture capital utilizes the 'token lock-up period + market maker control' combination, selling off immediately upon launch, with retail investors as the only buyers.
Ironically, BlackRock's AI oracle has monopolized 70% of on-chain data, and JPMorgan's quantum arbitrage system completes cross-chain harvesting in 0.0001 seconds. The speed of your manual order is a slow-motion replay in the eyes of institutions!
Two, the survival law of 2025: give up dreams of getting rich quickly, embrace 'anti-fragility'.
When the market becomes a battlefield of algorithms, the only way for retail investors to survive is to refuse FOMO and focus on the underlying logic:
Only buy tokens that can see cash flow.
If the token economic model lacks real income support (such as protocol fee dividends, RWA asset collateral), it is a castle in the air. Prioritize projects that have realized profits and whose tokens have clear utility (such as payment, governance, fuel fees), and avoid 'three no tokens' (no audit, no income, no users).
Take the VC cost price as the 'anchor point'.
If the project’s private placement round valuation is already FDV $1 billion, taking over in the secondary market is equivalent to sending a head. Be sure to clarify the financing history; any valuation exceeding similar projects by 30% should be blacklisted.
Beware of the 'ecological halo' bubble.
Eight projects in the Berachain ecosystem concentrated on issuing tokens, resulting in a complete collapse. Ecological narrative ≠ token value; excessive hype will lead to backlash!
Three, future trends: new coin failures may trigger structural reforms in the market.
In the short term, the wave of new coins breaking will trigger a chain reaction:
Funds will concentrate on Bitcoin and leading coins: Bitcoin's market share may exceed 70%, and liquidity of altcoins will further dry up;
Regulatory iron fist accelerates implementation: the US stablecoin bill and SEC token framework will clean out air coins, compliant tokens (such as RWA, government bond tokenization) will welcome opportunities.
VC issuance model collapses: high FDV issuance strategy fails, project parties are forced to turn to the 'low valuation + strong product' route.
But in the long run, this is a necessary pain for the crypto circle to move towards health. When naked swimmers are washed away, projects that truly create cash flow will emerge.
Four, a bloody piece of advice for you: survive the winter, wait for the wind.
In the current market, remember three sentences:
Do not bottom fish new coins: a 90% drop may just be the beginning, the fate of worthless coins is to exit the historical stage;
Hoard cash and wait for black swans: the Federal Reserve rate rises to 6.5%, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust annualized 8.3%, risk-free returns outperform most altcoins;
Focus on long-term narratives: RWA, stablecoin cross-border payments, and corporate Bitcoin reserves are the true main lines for 2025.
Follow me@币圈罗盘 , next time I'll take you to dismantle the underlying logic of contract strategies, helping you avoid detours and earn real money!#加密市场观察 $BTC $ETH
