Data doesn't lie, but the story behind the data needs to be interpreted correctly.
“In the past month, Bitcoin's realized price metric has stagnated, ending approximately two and a half years of continuous growth.” The latest data briefing from CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju reveals this phenomenon. As a seasoned crypto analyst, I believe this is not just a simple data change but a key signal of market momentum shift.
As I delved into the on-chain data, I found that the current market is being pulled in two opposing directions: on one side, there is large-scale profit-taking by long-term holders, while on the other side, there is a noticeable slowdown in new capital inflow. This tug-of-war has left Bitcoin in a temporary state of equilibrium.
01 The truth of weakening market momentum
On-chain data is the pulse of the Bitcoin market. The stagnation of the realized price reflects the fact that the speed of new funds entering the market has not kept up with the circulation speed of Bitcoin.
This change did not come out of nowhere. Data shows that the average cost price of Bitcoin wallets is about 55,900 USD, meaning that most holders are still in profit, with an average gain of about 93%. Normally, this is a sign of a healthy market, but the problem is that the price cannot rise not due to weak demand, but because of excessive selling pressure.
What is more concerning is that the amount of Bitcoin flowing from spot exchanges to futures exchanges has significantly decreased. This indicates that large holders are no longer as actively using Bitcoin as collateral to open new long positions as they did before. The market has lost this driver, and the upward momentum has naturally weakened.
02 The sell-off wave of long-term holders
Blockchain data reveals a harsh reality: those "veteran" holders who have held their coins for years are cashing out at the fastest rate in five years.
The K33 Research report points out that since the beginning of 2023, the number of Bitcoins that have not been moved for at least two years has decreased by 1.6 million, valued at approximately 140 billion USD. In 2025 alone, nearly 300 billion USD worth of Bitcoins that have been dormant for more than a year will re-enter circulation.
Such large-scale sell-offs are rare in Bitcoin's history, second only to the sell-off wave in 2017.
Unlike previous sell-offs, this one is not driven by altcoin trading or protocol incentives, but rather propelled by the deep liquidity brought in by US ETFs and institutional demand. Early holders capitalized on this to realize profits in the six-figure price range, significantly reducing ownership concentration.
03 Institutional demand: The biggest variable in the bull market
What was once regarded as the "bull market engine" of institutional demand has now become the biggest uncertainty in the market.
In the past month, the spot Bitcoin ETF has seen a net outflow of approximately 2.8 billion USD. This reversal signifies that previously stable funding inflows are drying up. Alex Saunders, head of quantitative macro research at Citigroup, noted: "New funds are entering cautiously, with no urgency or eagerness to invest. Perhaps people have lost enthusiasm."
What is more concerning is that the benchmark for corporate finance departments allocating Bitcoin, Michael Saylor's MicroStrategy, has seen its stock price drop to a level nearly equal to the value of its Bitcoin holdings. This indicates that investors are no longer willing to pay a premium for its high-leverage model.
The slowdown in institutional demand is also reflected in the derivatives market. The average order size for BTC futures contracts has shrunk from 6,000 USD at the beginning of this year to 2,000 USD, indicating that the current market is mainly dominated by retail investors, while large funds are still observing.
04 Changes in market structure and hope
Although the current situation seems pessimistic, the underlying structure of the Bitcoin market is undergoing positive changes.
Bitcoin's volatility continues to stabilize, with its realized volatility dropping to about 45%-50%, increasingly close to large tech stocks. This reduction in volatility indicates that Bitcoin is maturing, which may increase its attractiveness in investment portfolios.
At the same time, the pattern of supply distribution has also changed. Long-term holders are distributing Bitcoin in a more sustained manner rather than concentrating on selling at the top of the cycle as in the past. This smoother supply turnover is gradually absorbed by ETFs and institutional demand, creating a healthier market structure.
Glassnode's data indicates that the current cycle is highly similar to the markets from 2015-2018 and 2018-2022. In historical cycles, new all-time highs are typically achieved within two to three months after similar phases. If history repeats itself, we may not have to wait too long.
05 My analysis and outlook
As an analyst who has experienced multiple market cycles, I believe the current consolidation is necessary and healthy.
Bitcoin needs to break through the direct resistance range between 92,000 and 95,000 USD to regain upward momentum. Once achieved, the next key obstacle is located in the range of 100,000 to 108,000 USD, and breaking this level will pave the way for hitting new highs.
Future trends will depend on two key factors: whether ETF fund flows can recover and whether the macro environment improves. If the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle arrives as scheduled, it may provide a new round of liquidity support for risk assets.
For ordinary investors, I recommend paying attention to changes in the supply of long-term holders. When this indicator begins to rise again, it may signal that the market has passed the most severe selling pressure. At the same time, whether the short-term holders' realized profit and loss ratio (SOPR) can continue to break through 1 is also an important signal for market momentum recovery.
The next key battleground for Bitcoin is in the range of 92,000-95,000 USD. If it can break through this area with volume, we will see market sentiment quickly improve. Conversely, if it is blocked for a long time, it may further test the support strength at 83,000-85,000 USD.
Regardless of the short-term trend, the fundamentals of Bitcoin are actually strengthening. The network's hash rate continues to hit new highs (about 5.96 million ASIC miners online), and public mining farms are expanding rather than scaling back. These signals indicate that the long-term health of Bitcoin remains robust.
For more on-chain data interpretations and market insights, please continue to follow this column as we work together to understand the market and navigate through cycles.
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