In the various bull market cycles of Bitcoin, the price peak often shows some overheating signals.
Author of the article, source: MarsBit
However, this bull market seems to have undergone some significant changes—many previously tested indicators have yet to signal a peak, and the price of Bitcoin has been declining since it reached a new high on October 6, further driving many indicators bearish.
In the following, we will evaluate the characteristics and limitations of 10 classic indicators, and outline the inherent changes in Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market.
1. Pi Cycle Top Indicator: Has it reached a cycle peak?
The PI cycle indicator identifies Bitcoin price tops using the 111-day moving average (111DMA) and the 350-day moving average multiplied by 2 (350DMA x 2).
Generally, when the short-term line crosses above the long-term line, it often signals a market top, as it indicates that prices are rising too quickly, detached from fundamental support.
Historically, the Pi Cycle Top Indicator has shown a crossover performance before the tops of each bull market:
Top of 2017: 111DMA crossed 350DMA x 2, marking the subsequent bubble burst;
Double top of 2021: Similar to crossing over, the first top appeared, and the market quickly retraced;
As of now (Q4 2025), as shown in the figure below, the double lines have not yet crossed.
Source: https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/pi-cycle-top-indicator
2. Puell Multiple: Are miners' profits excessive?
Puell Multiple measures the ratio of miners' daily income relative to the 365-day moving average, used to assess miners' profitability and market cycles.
Its principle is based on miner behavior: when the ratio is too high, miners are highly profitable, which may increase selling pressure, forming a top; too low indicates miner capitulation, signaling a bottom. In other words, a high Puell Multiple reflects that the market is 'miners are too profitable', and supply pressure is accumulating.
Historically, the Puell Multiple has also shown extreme spikes before the tops of each bull market:
Top of 2017: Exceeding 7, a historical high;
Double top of 2021: Exceeding 3, followed by a crash;
As of now (Q4 2025), the Puell Multiple is in the range of 1 to 2, showing moderate miner pressure.
Source: https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/puell-multiple
3. Bitcoin Rainbow Chart: Has the price entered the 'sell' zone?
Bitcoin Rainbow Chart uses a logarithmic growth curve superimposed with rainbow color bands to assess Bitcoin's long-term valuation level.
Its principle maps prices to a color band: blue zone indicates undervaluation (buy), red zone indicates overvaluation (sell). The color band is based on historical growth curves, helping to identify extreme market sentiment.
Historically, the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart has shown entry into the red zone before the tops of each bull market:
Top of 2017: Deep red zone, bubble peak;
Double top of 2021: Orange-red zone, followed by adjustments;
As of now (Q4 2025), the price is in the yellow to orange range, not yet reaching the red bubble zone. We have also seen many analysts make adjustments to this indicator, but as of now, the coin price has not reached the red bubble area from historical experience.
Source: https://www.blockchaincenter.net/en/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/
4. 2-Year MA Multiplier: Has the multiple topped out?
2-Year MA Multiplier (also known as Golden Ratio Multiplier) identifies price resistance areas by multiplying the 2-year moving average by the Fibonacci ratio.
Its principle combines the golden ratio (1.6) and the Fibonacci sequence to assess the multiple of price relative to the long-term average: a high multiple indicates overheating, signaling a pullback. In other words, a high multiple means that the price is 'too far off the long-term trend', accumulating risks.
Historically, the 2-Year MA Multiplier has shown extreme multiples before the tops of each bull market:
Top of 2017: This indicator was 10 times different from the coin price, peaking one month after the price broke above 2 Yr MA *5;
Double top of 2021: Exceeding 5 times, the price just touched 2 Yr MA *5 before reaching the first top;
As of now (Q4 2025), the multiple is in the range of 2 to 3, not yet entering the high multiple area.
Source: https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/bitcoin-investor-tool/
5. Bitcoin 4-Year Moving Average: Is the price far exceeding the long-term moving average?
Bitcoin 4-Year Moving Average calculates the 4-year price average, assessing the macro trend of Bitcoin.
Its principle smooths out cyclical fluctuations: prices far exceeding the average indicate overheating; close to the average indicates balance. In other words, excessive deviation means 'cyclical bubbles', accumulating risks.
Historically, Bitcoin 4-Year Moving Average has shown extreme price deviations before the tops of each bull market:
Top of 2017: This indicator reached 16;
Double top of 2021: The first top reached 6, followed by a crash;
As of now (Q4 2025), the price reached a high of 2.3, showing a decreasing peak characteristic.
Source: https://www.coinglass.com/pro/i/four-year-moving-average
6. Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score: Has the valuation entered the risk zone?
MVRV Z-Score is a classic indicator for on-chain judgment of whether Bitcoin's valuation is 'deviating from its true value'.
Its principle is to compare Bitcoin's current market value with its 'realized market value' (i.e., the total holding cost of all coins), and then calculate the degree of standard deviation deviation. In other words: the higher the Z-Score, the more people are in profit, the market is 'too profitable', and risks begin to accumulate.
Historically, the MVRV Z-Score has always shown extreme spikes before the tops of each bull market:
Top of 2017: Approaching 10, a historical extreme;
Double top of 2021: The first top exceeded 7, followed by a market crash;
As of now (Q4 2025), the Z-Score is in the range of 2 to 4, and the valuation remains neutral.
Source: https://charts.bitbo.io/mvrv-z-score
It is worth mentioning that the MVRV Rate adds statistical analysis to MVRV, measuring the standard deviation between the current MVRV and its historical average. This standardization helps identify when Bitcoin's trading price is above or below 'fair value'. However, as shown in the figure below, this value at the peak of each bull market also presents a decreasing characteristic, and there has even been divergence between the coin price and the peak, greatly increasing the difficulty of using this indicator to predict tops.
Source: https://charts.bitbo.io/mvrv
7. Altcoin Season Index: Has altcoin season been initiated?
Altcoin Season Index tracks the performance of the top 100 altcoins relative to Bitcoin, assessing whether it has entered 'alt season'.
Its principle is based on relative performance: an index above 75 indicates the start of altcoin season, which often occurs after BTC's peak, with funds flowing from BTC to altcoins. In other words, a high index means BTC's dominance is weakening, and the market's risk accumulation is diversifying.
Historically, each bull market top has ended with the frenzy of altcoin season as a signal:
Top of 2017: Exceeding 90, altcoin season erupted;
Double top of 2021: Exceeding 80, followed by BTC's retracement;
As of now (Q4 2025), the index is in the range of 30 to 40, and the altcoin sector is underperforming. In fact, since this BTC bull market, this indicator has not even touched 60 at its highest, which may be due to insufficient liquidity and excessive issuance of new coins.
Source: https://www.blockchaincenter.net/en/altcoin-season-index
8. Bitcoin Long Term Holder Supply (LTH): Is the long-term holder supply decreasing?
Bitcoin Long Term Holder Supply (LTH) tracks the supply of Bitcoin held for more than 155 days, reflecting HODLer behavior.
Its principle is to observe supply changes: at the top, LTH often sells to realize profits; at the bottom, they accumulate. In other words, a decrease in LTH supply means 'smart money' is leaving, creating high risk.
Historically, LTH has also shown significant reductions before the tops of each bull market:
Top of 2017: The sell-off lasted for a year, reaching a peak at the top;
Double top of 2021: The first top followed a continuous sell-off over six months, but the cumulative volume of the second top set a historical high;
As of now (Q4 2025), the slow sell-off has lasted for six months, but does not conform to historical experience with the peak in October.
Source: https://charts.bitbo.io/long-term-holder-supply
9. Bitcoin Short Term Holder Supply (STH): Is there a surge in short-term holder supply?
Bitcoin Short Term Holder Supply (STH) tracks the proportion of Bitcoin held for less than 155 days, assessing novice speculation.
Its principle captures new fund inflows: a high proportion indicates rampant speculation, often signaling a top; a low proportion indicates market maturity. In other words, a high STH means 'too many novices', making the bubble prone to burst.
Historically, STH has shown surges before the tops of each bull market:
Top of 2017: Nearly 8M BTC, speculative peak;
Double top of 2021: The first top was nearly 6.5M BTC, but the second absolute top's sell-off did not reach the peak;
As of now, STH continues to rise, approaching 5.5M BTC, but the price peak is October 6, which is no longer as close to the STH peak as in the past two bull markets.
Source: https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/short-term-holder-supply
10. Bitcoin Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL): Has unrealized profit/loss entered the greed zone?
Bitcoin NUPL measures the ratio of the overall unrealized profit and loss of the network, assessing market sentiment.
Its principle is: calculate market value minus realized market value, then divide by market value: above 0.75 indicates greed (top signal); below 0 indicates fear (bottom). In other words, high NUPL means 'everyone is in profit', and the risk of selling is high.
Historically, Bitcoin NUPL has always shown extremely high performance before the peaks of each bull market:
Top of 2017: Exceeding 0.8, a historical extreme;
Double top of 2021: Exceeding 0.7, followed by a crash;
As of now (Q4 2025), NUPL has continuously fluctuated since reaching a high of 0.64 in early March 2024, now having dropped to 0.34.
Source: https://charts.bitbo.io/net-unrealized-profit-loss
Conclusion: This round of Bitcoin bull market has shown structural changes.
From the above indicators, the current Bitcoin market trend does not highly align with the extreme performances at past bull market tops. Historical tops often accompany multiple indicators overheating simultaneously, such as high Z-Score, high Puell Multiple, and NUPL entering the greed zone, accompanied by LTH sell-offs and STH surges, but now these indicators are performing very moderately.
This does not mean that the current Bitcoin price has not yet peaked; these indicators are all based on spatial judgment, and the diagram below, which predicts the price peak over a 3-year cycle, seems to indicate that Bitcoin has indeed peaked.
Source: https://x.com/btc_MasterPlan/status/1978180632410042828/photo/1
Of course, when analyzing the above indicators, we also found that these tools based on linear price trends have already shown signs of regression when predicting top areas, presenting characteristics of marginal diminishing returns. For example, MVRV at the peaks of the bull markets in 2017, 2021, and 2025 were 10, 7, and 3 respectively. We clearly cannot expect the current bull market to see MVRV reaching 7, nor is it easy to reliably predict the corresponding values for the original bull market peaks from MVRV.
In other words, while these indicators suggest that the market is in a neutral or moderate range, they do not confirm that the bull market is still ongoing or that the bear market has arrived, but indicate that the growth of the current Bitcoin market has become more gradual rather than explosive, which may be attributed to:
• First, the introduction of Bitcoin ETF attracted a large amount of long-term capital, stabilizing supply dynamics, contrasting with the past retail-driven bubbles, slowing down the overheating speed.
• Secondly, the global liquidity changes in 2025 (Federal Reserve rate cuts VS yen rate hikes) and geopolitical changes are repeatedly disturbing BTC's price, while the stable changes of various indicators precisely show that the market is more mature.
In summary, whether the current peak on October 6 is the top of this bull market, we must acknowledge that Bitcoin price volatility may have broken through past historical frameworks and experiences, as it seems to be undergoing a structural transformation from a 'cyclical asset' to a 'mainstream reserve'. It should be noted that for investors, these indicators may require adjusted thresholds or be used in conjunction to better inform investment decisions.
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