In contract trading, although "black swan" events are rare, when they occur, they can instantly wipe out an account. Multiple typical cases in 2025 have shown that trading without a dynamic risk control system is like dancing on the edge of a cliff. Zhonghang Oil suffered a loss of $550 million due to counter-trend position increases, and ordinary investors faced liquidation by ignoring the risks of margin hikes. The root cause of these tragedies lies in the static and delayed nature of risk control. The key to long-term profitability in contracts is to establish a dynamic risk control system that can adapt to market changes, giving accounts the "immunity" to withstand black swans.
The core of dynamic risk control is the flexible adjustment of capital management. Fixed position ratios cannot cope with the changing market environment; a rational approach is to adjust capital allocation based on market volatility. In low volatility, clear trend conditions, positions can be appropriately increased to 50%-60%; when the market enters a high volatility period, such as before the release of major economic data or escalations in geopolitical conflicts, it should be decisively reduced to below 30%. Additionally, achieving three-dimensional diversification of varieties and cycles is essential: allocate different categories such as agricultural products and metals to hedge risks by utilizing the low correlation between different varieties; combine short, medium, and long-term trading to reduce systemic risks from a single time dimension.
Dynamic stop-loss is the key defense line against black swans. Static stop-losses can be instantly breached in extreme market conditions, while dynamic stop-losses can adjust in real-time with market changes. Taking crude oil futures trading as an example, when the initial entry price is $65 per barrel, the first stop-loss is set at $63; when the price rises to $68, the stop-loss is moved to $66; after breaking through $70, it is adjusted to $68. This moving stop-loss strategy successfully helped investors lock in over 80% of floating profits in an environment where the volatility of crude oil reached 35% in 2025. Furthermore, before major risk events, one can proactively widen stop-loss limits or temporarily close positions to avoid uncertainty risks.
The flexible use of risk hedging tools can further enhance account immunity. For traders holding long futures positions, buying put options with a strike price 5% below the current price can be effective; in a market environment where the probability of daily fluctuations in copper prices exceeding 4% reaches 28% in 2025, this protective strategy can effectively prevent black swans. Before the release of major economic data, one can also adopt a straddle options strategy, simultaneously buying calls and puts with the same strike price to capture profits from rising volatility and hedge against the risks of sudden market changes. For retail investors, even if they are not familiar with complex hedging tools, they can actively avoid high-risk periods by lowering positions or pausing trading.
The ultimate goal of dynamic risk control is to build an 'anti-fragile' investment portfolio that can not only withstand risks but also seek opportunities within them. This requires traders to regularly review and optimize the risk control system: reviewing major loss cases monthly, updating risk control parameters quarterly, and conducting a comprehensive risk audit annually. Only by synchronizing the risk control system with market changes can one stand firm in the contract market, where black swan events frequently occur, and achieve long-term profitability.
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