On the surface, they shout bullish, but secretly prepare to hit hard, I have seen this routine many times.
Brothers, recently the DOGE market has been making me shake my head. This dogecoin performance is becoming increasingly sophisticated, clearly wearing a bullish vest, but secretly sharpening knives to prepare for harvest. The monitoring signal has already lit up the warning light of 'chip divergence', isn't this the big player in the group @ all members: guys, don't buy, I am really going to hit hard!
I have been struggling in this market for so many years, I am too familiar with this kind of routine. On the surface, it appears to be a bullish direction, but the actions of the big players clearly indicate 'phased unloading', which is a typical case of false appearances. Today, I will break down the current situation of DOGE for everyone and share my personal views.
01 The truth behind the surface bulls.
Looking at DOGE's current market, at first glance, it seems there is a support platform around $0.19-$0.20, but upon closer analysis, it is not the case at all.
From a technical indicator perspective, DOGE has already broken below the April low, with the downward trend clearly strengthening. MACD has shown a death cross, with bearish strength reaching a three-month peak. More critically, the support level of $0.2089 has been broken three times; if it cannot recover the resistance level of $0.25, it may trigger a chain liquidation.
On-chain data further illustrates the issue. Addresses holding 100 million to 1 billion DOGE are reducing their holdings, with their share dropping from a peak of 53.95% on December 3 to 50.70%. What does this mean? Large funds are quietly exiting.
02 The perfect trap of the market maker.
How do market makers operate? I summarize their 'three acts':
Phase 1: Create a false impression of sideways consolidation. Let the price fluctuate around $0.19-$0.20, giving the impression that it can't drop any further.
Phase 2: Raise to around $0.21 to entice buying. Suddenly spike the price, create a false breakout, and lure retail investors to chase.
Phase 3: Break below $0.19 to complete the selling. Wait until retail investors have entered the market, then directly dump and trap those chasing highs.
The most ruthless part is that the open contracts for DOGE futures are increasing, but the price is dropping. This divergence between positions and price often signals a crash. Recall November 2024, a similar situation led to a $4.6 billion market cap evaporating in five days.
03 Key positions and response strategies.
In the face of this market situation, I share my trading thoughts with everyone:
The upper bearish pressure area is stepwise, with each layer being a position that is easy to spike and fall back.
$0.13233–$0.13342: The first threshold, the most likely to repeatedly hit back those chasing long.
$0.13691–$0.13774: The second threshold, even if broken, is hard to sustain.
$0.13848–$0.13944: A typical 'enticing layer,' spikes will fall back.
$0.14075–$0.14140: High-level selling area, common false breakout.
The only capital accumulation range below is around $0.12009–$0.12177. Only when the price reaches this area might there be capital willing to take over.
For brothers with different trading styles, I suggest:
For spot holders: don't increase positions in the pressure step area; instead, take the opportunity to reduce positions.
For contract players: only small positions should be tested, and stop losses must be set.
For those holding empty positions: the wisest choice is to observe and wait for clearer signals.
04 My personal judgment.
Currently, DOGE is indeed in a state of 'bullish disguise, bearish core.' The upper stepwise pressure is dense, and the chip divergence indicates extremely high enticing risks.
The truly noteworthy safe zone is the potential accumulation zone around $0.120 below, not chasing breakouts in the pressure zone. If the support at $0.135 is broken, it may drop to the psychological level of $0.1000.
In this market environment, remember my three principles: no All in, no leverage, no FOMO. The market maker wants to see retail investors trade emotionally, but we must respond calmly.
The show of DOGE will continue, but as long as we understand the rules, we have nothing to fear from being cut. Remember, surviving in this market is more important than making quick money.
Everyone is welcome to share their views and experiences in the comments section; let's avoid these traps together and seize the real opportunities! Follow Xiang Ge to learn more firsthand information and precise points in the crypto world, becoming your guide in crypto; learning is your greatest wealth!#加密市场观察 #ETH走势分析 $ETH
