On December 22, 2025, Venezuelan economist Asdrúbal Oliveros and Aníbal Garrido, head of the UCAB Blockchain Institute, disclosed at a forum: about 80% of the country's crude oil sales revenue is settled in USDT, primarily to circumvent U.S. sanctions and maintain oil exports and fiscal operations. Here are the key points:
Core Background and Data
- Sanctions and Coercion: The United States has long sanctioned and frozen its dollar settlement channels, recently seizing tankers and strengthening law enforcement, prompting a shift to stablecoin settlements.
- Exports and Settlements: About 80% of crude oil exports go to Asia, with buyers often requesting discounts and payments in USDT; the national oil company PDVSA is the main recipient, with funds flowing back to the country through Asian intermediaries.
- Crypto adoption: In 2025, Venezuela is expected to receive approximately 44.6 billion USD in crypto assets, with USDT accounting for over 50%, making stablecoins an important channel for legal hard currency inflows.
- Production and bottlenecks: Daily output is approximately 936,000 barrels (August data), with annual revenue exceeding 12 billion USD, but there are difficulties in USDT settlement and distribution, creating a bottleneck in the foreign exchange market.
Settlement and circulation mechanism
- Path: PDVSA receives USDT → splits via mixers/cross-chain bridges → Asian OTC/small exchanges exchange for fiat → used for government payments, contractor settlements, and import procurement.
- Risks: There are compliance, liquidity, and price volatility risks; large-scale USDT exchanges may trigger market shocks, and pressure on money laundering regulations is rising.
Market and strategic impact
- De-dollarization: Becoming a model for 'digital settlement' for sanctioned countries, creating a demonstration effect with Russia, Iran, and others.
- Stablecoin demand: Large-scale use of USDT in oil trade may further increase its share of cross-border settlements, strengthening its binding with commodities.
- Venezuela: If sanctions continue, it may further transform into a stablecoin-dependent oil economy, while also needing to address USDT settlement efficiency and compliance issues.
Trading and risk warnings
- Pay attention to large USDT transfers related to PDVSA, abnormal flows in Asian OTC and mixers, which may affect USDT's short-term liquidity and market sentiment.
- Be cautious of escalating sanctions or tightening regulations, which may hinder settlement paths and trigger fluctuations in oil prices and the crypto market.
