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Federal Reserve to remain steady in January? Three rate cuts expected this year could shake things up! Will the crypto market get restless? 一起聊聊财富密码！
The Federal Reserve lowered rates to 3.5%-3.75% as expected in December, but Powell's statement set the tone for January's direction—high probability of keeping rates unchanged, with a 70% chance of locking in the current range! However, don't be fooled by hawkish statements; institutions have stated that this wave of hawkishness won't last long, and there are still three major rate cut events expected in 2026!
Key points: After the voting rights rotation in January, hawks still have the advantage, but the probability of a rate cut in March skyrockets to 55%! November CPI fell to 2.7%, exceeding expectations, and the labor market remains weak, all paving the way for Fed easing. More critically, the new chair will take office in May, and Trump will likely nominate a dovish candidate, potentially starting a prolonged easing cycle in June, with year-end rates possibly dropping to the 2.75%-3.25% range!
Three key milestones locked in early: January sees “no rate cut” as mainstream (only a 1% chance of a rate hike), a high probability of another 25 basis point cut in March, and continued easing under the new chair in June. But risks must also be guarded against: tariffs could drive up inflation, and a slowdown in rate cuts cannot be ruled out. For the crypto market, expectations of Fed easing are a strong weapon, as liquidity easing often drives up risk assets!
Do you think the Federal Reserve can complete three rate cuts as scheduled next year? Will the new chair lead to easing beyond expectations? You can check out the concept of Musk's p.u.p.p.i.es!
