According to analysts, the current quantile of Bitcoin is at 28.4. Historically, the market has traded above these levels 71.6% of the time. Simply put, BTC is currently valued below its usual range and is trading about 25% below the long-term trend. This does not mean an automatic reversal, but indicates a state of relative 'discount' by historical standards.
An additional sign of tension is that about 350,000 BTC were sold at a loss. Such sales typically occur during moments of market fatigue when some participants cannot withstand prolonged uncertainty. For newcomers, it's important to understand: realizing losses is more characteristic of late stages of decline or sideways markets, rather than the beginning of euphoria.
At the same time, the cryptocurrency market itself has changed significantly. In 2025, there was an explosive growth in the number of digital assets. If at the beginning of the year there were about 5.8 million tokens tracked, by the end of the year their number exceeded 28.6 million. A growth of almost 390% indicates market saturation. This intensifies competition for liquidity and investor attention and explains why money is distributed unevenly and many altcoins appear weak.
The head of CryptoQuant also notes a weakening of capital inflows into the Bitcoin network. After about 2.5 years of growth, the realized capitalization has essentially stopped growing in recent months. This is a sign of a pause rather than a collapse. Historically, such periods can last for months as the market digests past growth and forms new expectations.
Conclusion
The market currently looks tired and overloaded, but Bitcoin is trading below long-term benchmarks, and some negative factors are already reflected in the price. For novice investors, this is more of a phase of waiting and adapting, rather than a time for sharp decisions. During such periods, it is especially important to understand the market structure, rather than reacting solely to short-term emotions.
