Laughing to death! The emotions in the crypto circle change faster than flipping a book! A few days ago, DOGE fell below $0.13, and the group was filled with wails of 'Should we cut our losses?'; today it just rebounded by 6%, and immediately someone shouted 'Target $1.10, to the moon before Christmas'—as an old analyst who has seen countless cycles of 'Dogecoin frenzy - crash', I have to pour a bucket of cold water: this wave of market excitement can be watched, but don't heavily invest!
Let's first break down a core contradiction: emotions running high vs fundamentals lacking. Does this rebound have any solid support? Yes, but it's all on an emotional level. The 12th anniversary celebration has brought the community's cohesion to its peak, with over 70,000 active addresses being the best proof; whales are temporarily not selling, giving the market a 'sense of security'; plus, after the ETF hype cooled down, some retail funds found no exit and flowed into DOGE, which naturally attracts traffic.
But have you ever thought about: how long can these supports last? Whales are just temporarily not selling, not forever. Once the price rises to their target range, the selling might happen in an instant; retail sentiment is even more fickle. After Christmas, the 'holiday effect' fades, and naturally, buying interest diminishes. More critically, institutions have not participated in this wave of the market — after the cooling expectations for ETF launches, institutions remain 'cautious and distant' towards these meme assets. Without institutional support, the sustainability of this trend is questionable.
Now let's talk about the technical aspect: the so-called 'bullish patterns not seen since 2021' are actually driven by 'emotional accumulation of short-term funds.' From the perspective of moving averages, DOGE is currently oscillating between the 5-day and 10-day lines, without forming a clear bullish arrangement. Although trading volume has increased, it mainly consists of retail funds speculating, and the sustainability of this volume is questionable. My technical judgment is: in the short term, it is highly likely to maintain range oscillation ($0.12-$0.15); to break through this range, either new positive news is needed, or institutional funds must enter, otherwise, it's just 'a castle in the air.'
Many beginners ask me, 'Can we still take a shot now?' — My answer is: absolutely not! For meme assets, my operating principle has always been 'small positions for entertainment, large positions for avoidance.' If you have spare money and want to join in the fun, at most take 1%-2% of your funds to play around; even if you lose, it won't affect your life. But if you want to heavily bet on a target of $1.10, I advise you to wake up. Many old players are still recovering from the 'crash disaster' after the frenzy in 2021.
Finally, let's interact with everyone: Do you think this DOGE rebound can last until Christmas? What do you think is a reasonable target price? Share your thoughts in the comments. If you feel helpless and confused about trading right now and want to learn more about cryptocurrency and get firsthand cutting-edge information, follow me @标哥说币
