The Christmas week volatility pattern is set, my position says it all
Brothers, I just finished reading the QCP report and on-chain data, and I'll get straight to the conclusion: don't expect a big market movement before the holiday, it will continue to oscillate, but January looks promising.
In recent days, BTC has been flat like a line, and even when gold skyrocketed, it didn't follow. Why? On-chain data doesn't lie—open interest in perpetual contracts on mainstream exchanges dropped by billions of dollars overnight, indicating that large funds are actively reducing leverage; nobody is going all in at this time. Additionally, over 500,000 options expired last Friday, making it easier for the market makers to manipulate prices during low liquidity, leading to a double whammy for both longs and shorts.
Many people ask: "Historically, Christmas volatility is 5%-7%, will it spike this year?"
Looking at the options data, we see that the open interest for $100,000 call options hasn't decreased, but the $85,000 put options are being withdrawn, indicating insufficient confidence in a surge, yet traders are hesitant to go fully bearish. This conflicting mentality is the fuel for a volatile market.
Once liquidity returns in January, the trend will become clear. The current low-volume oscillation is waiting for the macroeconomic direction (especially the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations next year).
Ethereum's rebound is not over yet, and the Layer 2 ecosystem has recently seen frequent positive developments; hold onto your spot positions and don't get shaken out.
In terms of operations:
Contract traders should hold back; low liquidity + options expiration = high-risk manipulation.
Continue to place staggered buy orders in the spot market; sharp drops are gifts for the year-end.
Attention should turn to January, where a return to "mean reversion after the holiday" is highly likely.
I currently have a 50% position; I'm willing to add if it drops and won't chase if it rises. The market always rewards those who are patient—remember, movements start in despair and rise in hesitation. During Christmas week, if we stay steady, we win.
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