Still struggling with whether to go long on Bitcoin? After reading this article, you will be completely awakened!
Recently, the backend has received many private messages from fans asking me, 'Can we go long on Bitcoin now?' and 'Will it break the previous high soon?' Today, as a senior cryptocurrency analyst, I will use the most straightforward language to deeply analyze the 3 major core obstacles to a bullish outlook on Bitcoin, helping everyone break their illusions and recognize the market reality.
The first core obstacle: The macro environment does not support it. Currently, the monetary policies of major global economies are still in a tightening cycle, and the tightening of liquidity is obviously suppressing risk assets. As a typical risk asset, Bitcoin's price movements are highly correlated with global liquidity. From the latest economic data, core inflation remains above target levels, and the possibility of a shift to a loose monetary policy in the short term is extremely low. In this macro context, it is difficult for Bitcoin to experience a trend upward, and a bullish outlook naturally lacks a foundation.
The second core obstacle: The deterioration of the market's chip structure. Through chip distribution data, it can be seen that the current Bitcoin chips are concentrated in high-level ranges, with a large number of retail investors trapped at high levels, creating heavy selling pressure. When the price rises to key resistance levels, the trapped retail investors' exit will flood the market, suppressing price increases. Meanwhile, the concentration of low-level chips continues to decline, indicating that long-term funds are gradually exiting. Without the support of long-term funds, it is difficult for the market to form effective upward momentum, which is also a significant reason why bullish opportunities are not favorable at present.
The third core obstacle: The exhaustion of short-term favorable factors. Several key factors that previously supported the short-term rise of Bitcoin, such as favorable industry policies and the approval of new institutional products, have now been gradually digested, and the market lacks new positive stimuli. In the absence of new favorable factors, it is difficult for the market to maintain an upward momentum, and it is more likely to trigger adjustments due to negative news. This is something everyone must pay attention to; market uptrends require continuous positive driving. When the favorable factors are exhausted, it is a process of risk accumulation.
Some friends may ask, when can we go long? My answer is: wait for the obstacles to be eliminated. Either wait for the macro environment to show signs of easing, or wait for the chip structure to be optimized, or wait for new favorable factors to emerge. Before these signals appear, the safest strategy is to wait and see.
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