A leaked Fundstrat slide has sparked fresh debate about where crypto could head in 2026 — and whether the firm’s cautious near-term outlook clashes with Tom Lee’s recent public bullishness on Ethereum. What leaked - Wu Blockchain posted a screenshot on X of an internal client note titled “2026 Crypto Outlook: Near-Term Headwinds, Second-Half Upside,” timestamped Dec. 17, 2025, 7:34 p.m. ET. - The note is credited to Sean Farrell, Fundstrat’s head of digital asset strategy, and lays out a base case that calls for a “meaningful drawdown in 1H 2026.” Target ranges in that scenario: bitcoin $60,000–$65,000, ether $1,800–$2,000, and solana $50–$75. - The document frames those levels as “attractive opportunities into year-end,” and urges a defensive posture until market strength is confirmed. Why the screenshot caused a stir - Ether is trading around $3,000, so a $1,800 target implies a large downside — a contrast with Tom Lee’s recent and very public optimism. - At Binance Blockchain Week, Lee said ETH at roughly $3,000 looked “severely undervalued,” and in recent weeks he has floated eye-popping targets: ETH to $20,000 next year and $62,000 over several years. That messaging makes the Fundstrat range look notably more cautious. Fundstrat pushes back on “internal conflict” - Farrell replied on X on Dec. 20, saying the notion of internal conflict misreads how Fundstrat serves clients. The firm runs different, independent analyst processes for different client objectives and time horizons. - According to Farrell, Lee’s work targets large institutions that might allocate 1%–5% to BTC and ETH and is centered on long-term macro and secular trends. Farrell’s research is designed for investors with heavier crypto exposure (he referenced portfolios with ~20%+ allocations) where active risk management and rebalancing are paramount. Farrell’s reasoning: near-term caution, long-term optimism - Farrell says the note isn’t a blanket bearish call but a cautious near-term stance: markets look priced for “near-perfection” while several risks remain elevated. He cited potential government shutdown dynamics, trade volatility, uncertainty around AI capex, a Federal Reserve chair transition, tight high-yield spreads, and unusually low cross-asset volatility. - He also pointed to mixed flows: potential long-term ETF demand as wirehouses onboard, countered by near-term selling from early crypto holders (“OG selling”), miners, fund redemptions, and the unusual risk of events like an MSCI MicroStrategy delisting — a reminder that crypto liquidity and sentiment are intertwined with crypto-equity products. - Farrell’s base case: an early-year bounce followed by a 1H drawdown that creates better entry opportunities into year-end. He added that, if he proves wrong, he prefers to wait for confirmations — trend breaks, flows, momentum, or a clear catalyst — rather than hold through uncertain conditions. The bigger picture - Importantly, Farrell still expects BTC and ETH to challenge new all-time highs by year-end, describing a shorter, shallower bear that could compress the traditional four-year cycle. - At press time, ETH traded at $3,043. Bottom line - The “leak” helped clarify an important point: Fundstrat’s cautious near-term targets reflect a risk-management posture aimed at different client needs, not necessarily a contradiction of Tom Lee’s longer-term bullish thesis. Both viewpoints can coexist — one focused on weathering possible 1H 2026 turbulence, the other on multi-year upside. Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news

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