Fidelity’s top markets strategist is sounding a cautious note for Bitcoin: the October high of $126,000 may already mark the peak of this cycle, and 2026 could be a bumpy year for the flagship crypto. Why Fidelity is worried - Jurrien Timmer points to Bitcoin’s historical four-year rhythm tied to halvings. Each cycle has featured parabolic rallies followed by steep corrections — often in the 70–85% range. - Past examples cited: after the 2013 top near $1,137 BTC fell to roughly $230; the 2017 peak around $14,050 later traded down toward about $3,415. Timmer interprets the October $126K high as a potential repeat of that pattern. Key levels and scenarios - Timmer sees significant downside risk in 2026, with key support in the $65,000–$75,000 range. - Traders and options markets show a wide range of outcomes: some pricing models put roughly equal odds on month-end June 2026 levels of $70K or $130K, and on year-end 2027 outcomes of about $50K or $250K. Market context and competing views - Long-term log charts help frame these moves: cycles often look like a fast climb to a peak, a sharp drop, then a long sideways period where gains felt slow — the stretches where patient, long-term holders are typically rewarded. - Galaxy Research warns that overlapping macro and market risks make 2026 harder to forecast. Their take: Bitcoin is behaving more like a macro asset in current option and volatility trends, though they remain bullish on a multi-year time horizon and project a path toward $250,000 by the end of 2027. - Market commentators vary — some see potential for new highs in 2026 despite the risks; others treat big pullbacks as tests of patience rather than evidence the narrative has broken. What to watch in early 2026 - History suggests first quarters in past cycles often provided some price stability, but recent years have been less regular. - The balance between fresh institutional demand (large inflows, corporate treasury buys) and potential selling from early-cycle large holders (whales) will likely determine whether the historical four-year rhythm reasserts itself. The first half of 2026 could be decisive. Bottom line Timmer’s warning reframes October’s $126K peak as a potential cycle high, not a launchpad for nonstop gains. Traders and investors should prepare for heightened volatility and a possible drawdown toward the $65K–$75K range, while keeping an eye on options markets, institutional flows, and how whale supply behaves in early 2026. Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news

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