Bitcoin is losing 22.54% of its value this quarter so far and is experiencing the steepest quarterly decline since 2018. With less than 10 days left in the year, it no longer seems likely that Bitcoin will reach the upward targets many analysts hoped for.
Market experts are currently reassessing their short-term expectations: How will Bitcoin close out the remainder of the year, and what might happen in 2026?
The expert highlighted critical levels in Bitcoin as the year comes to a close
Bitcoin is facing serious headwinds after its peak in October. According to Coinglass data, the cryptocurrency closed the last two months in the red.
In October, there was a decline of 3.69%, and in November, a much sharper decline of 17.67%. So far this month, Bitcoin's loss has been 2.31%.
The cryptocurrency is unable to maintain a solid hold above the $90,000 level. It has even fallen below the prices at the beginning of the year. At the same time, the weakening of demand growth, the slowdown in spot ETF entries, and smart money turning to sell are increasing the downward risks for Bitcoin.
Selling pressure did not ease in the last transactions, and Bitcoin lost another 1.8% in value over the last 24 hours. At the time of writing, the price was at $87,183.
Ray Youssef, CEO of NoOnes, told BeInCrypto that Bitcoin is 'stuck in a narrowing band.' Complex macroeconomic conditions make it difficult for the leading cryptocurrency to regain upward movement below $90,000. During this period, the appetite for risk is also tightening due to reduced liquidity.
Ray Youssef emphasized that the bulls defend the $85,000 support, but they could not overcome the intense selling pressure from the $93,000 area at the beginning of the year.
Options market data shows that this struggle among market players continues. Put options are concentrated at $85,000, while call options are occurring between $100,000 and $120,000.
According to Youssef, the upcoming options expiration, extra data on the U.S. government's shutdown, and the Fed's $6.8 billion liquidity injection could create a volatility spike in the short term. However, the market does not have clear direction.
Ray Youssef stated: 'As long as Bitcoin does not definitively break above the resistance level of $93,000 or loses its structural support at $85,000, a horizontal and volatile trend will dominate until the end of the year.'
According to the manager, despite a drop of over 30% from the peak seen in October, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF assets have not decreased by more than 5%. This indicates that institutional investors are maintaining their positions during the current downtrend.
Youssef stated that most of the selling pressure is sourced from leveraged and short-term individual investors. He emphasized that as the end of 2025 approaches, the $85,000 level is critically important.
Falling below this region could increase the likelihood of the price dropping to the $73,000 demand zone.
Ray Youssef stated in his forecast: 'The break of the support level will force institutional investors to make decisions as the price approaches costs around $80,000. For the market to rise again and move towards former peaks, it is essential to regain the $94,000 level.'
Bitcoin's 2026 Outlook
Meanwhile, VALR CEO Farzam Ehsani stated that the last stretch of the year is one of the most challenging periods for cryptocurrency in recent years. He cited seasonal weakness, persistent overbought conditions, and the shift of investor interest back to more conservative instruments like U.S. government bonds.
Ehsani pointed out that market liquidity is still tight. On the other hand, he noted that institutional players increasingly prefer to wait before taking positions and are turning to capital preservation strategies.
Moreover, Ehsani emphasized that the current correction shows how fragile the market is and how open it is to panic sales. According to him, there are two logical conclusions here:
First: One or more major market participants – which could be a fund, bank, or even the government – may be preparing positions to make a significant purchase.
Ehsani said: 'In this case, the decline in the exchange rate is likely artificial; after a temporary pullback, the price will rise again.'
Alternatively, the market may be overly saturated. The weakening dollar due to the increase in U.S. government debt is also reducing demand for cryptocurrencies, especially among risky assets.
Ehsani stated, 'This trend has accelerated even more due to the policies of the Federal Reserve. In this case, the recovery of the cryptocurrency market may take more than a year.'
According to the manager's prediction, Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high in the first half of 2026, and prices could move back to the $100,000 - $120,000 range in the second quarter.
[VALR CEO](#) stated: 'A new all-time price peak could be seen in the first half of 2026. The price is expected to return to the range of $100,000–$120,000 in the second quarter. Historically, the first months of the year do not tend to be very active: traders usually adopt a wait-and-see approach, while the market is looking for new growth catalysts and opportunities.'
VALR CEO emphasized that the determining factors for next year will be the level of institutional adoption, regulatory policies to be implemented in the U.S. and globally, and to some extent, the macroeconomic conditions of the world's largest economies.
