Who is still blindly adhering to the old saying 'halving must lead to a surge'? Let me pour some cold water on you: In the last halving, the price increased by 45% in the 30 days following it, while in the 45 days before this halving, 62% of the main players were quietly selling off! Doesn't this contrasting data completely overturn your understanding? What's even more painful is that the latest statistics from a leading data platform show that the concentration of retail investors' holdings is 37% higher than during the same period of the last halving, while the number of active addresses on-chain has decreased by 21%—one side is retail investors frantically buying the dip, while the other side is funds quietly exiting. This misalignment in supply and demand logic is the key that determines whether you will be feasting or losing out next.
As a veteran who has been deeply engaged in the crypto market for 8 years, I must state the core conclusion first: the essence of the halving market is not 'halving leads to an increase,' but rather 'a game result between supply contraction and demand absorption.' First, let's look at the hard data on the supply side: after this halving, the block reward for core coins will decrease from 3.125 coins/block to 1.5625 coins/block, and the annual inflation rate will be directly halved to 1.8%. This means that the market's new supply will decrease by about 120,000 coins per year, corresponding to a market value reduction of nearly 8 billion at current prices. Looking at this set of data alone, the benefits of supply contraction seem strong enough, but hold on, the data on the demand side is the real 'mirror to reveal the truth.'
From on-chain demand data, in the last 30 days, the number of large transfers exceeding 100 coins has decreased by 28%. This indicates that large funds (what we often refer to as 'smart money') are remaining on the sidelines and have not significantly entered to absorb the supply gap after the halving. More critically, the net outflow data from major trading platforms shows that the net outflow amount in the last 15 days was only 230 million, far below the 1.58 billion during the same period of the last halving—this signals that the current demand absorption capacity in the market is severely insufficient. Many retail investors mistakenly believe that 'a decrease in supply will lead to an increase,' overlooking the basic logic that 'supply contraction without demand can at most lead to sideways fluctuations.'
Looking at historical data, the reason the last halving led to a significant market movement was primarily due to a simultaneous explosion in demand: the scale of institutional funds entering the market increased by 120% compared to before the halving, and the number of active addresses on the blockchain maintained a growth of over 20% for 60 consecutive days, creating a perfect supply-demand match of 'supply contraction + demand explosion.' Currently, the scale of institutional funds entering the market is only 45% of what it was during the same period of the last halving, with retail investors becoming the main force on the demand side. However, the concentration of funds and stability of positions among retail investors are far inferior to those of institutions, making it difficult to form sustained demand support.
At this point, some friends might ask: does this mean there will be no market movement during this halving? Not necessarily! My personal view is that there will definitely be some market movement, but it won’t be the kind of widespread rally where 'buying with your eyes closed guarantees profit' as seen in the last halving; rather, it will be a structural market. There are two key observation points moving forward: first, whether the number of large transfers can rebound to over 500 transfers/day within 15 days after the halving, which is an important signal for large funds entering the market; second, whether the number of active addresses on the blockchain can break through the previous high point, forming effective support for demand absorption.
To be frank, the crypto market has always been about 'data speaking,' not 'emotions speaking.' Those shouting 'halving must lead to an increase' either do not understand the logic of supply and demand or want to cut retail investors' leeks. Follow me @链上标哥 to avoid getting lost!
