Brothers, the Christmas holiday has begun. While others are showing off their Christmas trees, I'm keeping an eye on the market for 'waterfall' warnings! Recently, many fans have asked me: 'Should I clear my positions before the holiday?' 'Is it okay to buy the dip now?' Today, I reply uniformly: clearing positions is not necessary, but buying the dip is definitely not advisable! This wave of market volatility hides the bears' 'little calculations'; those who understand have already started to reduce their positions.
As a cryptocurrency analyst who has long been engaged in market speculation, I never rely on guessing market trends to make a living; I only speak with logic and data. Today, I will share my most valuable analytical methods with you. If you understand these points, you can avoid the 'pits' before the holiday.
First, we need to understand the essence of 'liquidity exhaustion'. Many beginners think that poor liquidity means small fluctuations, but in fact, it's quite the opposite. In a low liquidity environment, even small changes in funds can be magnified. A small piece of negative news can trigger panic selling, leading to a price crash; conversely, a small amount of funds can also drive prices up significantly. But this is all an 'illusion'; once the funds withdraw, the decline will be even harsher. It's like stirring a dry pond with your hand; the ripples are larger than when there's water, but they won't last long.
Combining this with the current macro environment, the Federal Reserve's repurchase agreement plan is still ongoing. Although it has temporarily alleviated market liquidity pressure, the long-term direction of tightening liquidity remains unchanged. The correlation between the crypto market and US stocks is still high. After US stocks close, funds lose their 'safe haven', and some capital will withdraw from the crypto market, further intensifying downward pressure. The so-called 'Bitcoin vs. Gold war' now shows that gold's safe-haven properties are superior, and funds are quietly flowing towards gold, leaving the crypto market 'neglected'.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin and Ethereum's movements have already given clear signals. Bitcoin has formed a double top pattern around $88,000, which is a classic bearish signal. Coupled with shrinking volume, the downward momentum is fully charged. The moving average system of Ethereum has already begun to turn downwards, with the short-term moving average crossing below the long-term moving average, forming a 'death cross', which is a strong signal of trend reversal. I emphasize again, Bitcoin at $85,000-$85,500 and Ethereum at $2,750-$2,800 are crucial levels; breaking these will open up significant downward space.
In terms of operational strategy, I categorize fans with different positions: those fully invested should quickly reduce their positions to below 50%, lock in profits, and not be greedy; those with half positions should continue to reduce when prices rise, keeping some capital ready for opportunities; those with no positions should patiently wait. Even if the market rebounds, don't chase the rise; a rebound is an opportunity to reduce positions, not to enter the market.
Finally, I know many people want to make some extra money before the festival, but the market is never merciful. To survive in the crypto market in the long term, it's not about luck, it's about understanding. Follow me! I will update market analysis every day, breaking down complex market conditions into easy-to-understand logic, helping you avoid traps and seize opportunities. If you find my analysis useful, please like, bookmark, and share it so that more people can see it. Let's mine gold in the crypto market together, rather than being harvested as 'chives'! Follow me, and you won't get lost!
