In my years of engaging in cryptocurrency trading, my deepest realization is that most people lose not because of wrong directional judgment, but because they force trades during unclear market conditions. Watching the moving averages twist into a mess, with directions fluctuating, yet still trying to find a bullish or bearish result ends up mostly in stop-losses.
Today I want to talk about a fundamental yet core principle—"don't look at chaotic lines, don't buy when the shape is scattered." These eight words have helped me avoid countless traps and are the cornerstone of my stable profits. Below, I will clarify three points based on my experience:
Why is it better to simply give up on complex markets?
What does a pattern worth placing an order look like in my eyes?
Use real cases to clearly see how to capture the market.
1. Why do I firmly avoid markets that are 'chaotic and scattered'?
First, imagine two scenarios:
'Chaotic lines': For example, the moving average system (like the common MA5, MA10, MA30) repeatedly crosses, sometimes in a bullish arrangement and sometimes in a bearish arrangement, with short-term moving averages crossing up and down like a ball of yarn. This indicates a chaotic market force, with both bulls and bears lacking dominance, causing the trend to lose direction amid oscillation.
'Scattered shapes': The highs and lows of the K-line are messy, without clear support and resistance levels. Every time you think it’s about to break out, it retracts; when you think it should drop, it rebounds instead. The essence of this 'scattered shape' is the lack of market consensus, making the market feel like a headless fly, with anyone trading feeling uncertain.
I used to try to 'show operations' in such markets, but the result was always a slap in the face. Later, I realized:
Trading is for making money, not for academic research. If you can't understand the market, forcing trades will only lead to losses; it's better to take a break.
The money made in simple markets is of the same value as that made in complex markets. We don't need to challenge high-difficulty moves; we should only trade in markets that are easy to understand at a glance, which will yield more stable profits.
Therefore, my principle is: as long as the moving averages are not converging and the direction is not unified, or the K-line structure is vague, I will stay out and wait. This is not cowardice, but leaving the bullets for opportunities with a higher hit rate.
2. What kind of pattern will I decisively act on?
For me, a pattern worth trading must meet several conditions:
Position is key, the pattern is clear.
The pattern must occur at the 'turning point' or 'acceleration point' of the trend. For instance, the bottom consolidation area after a wave of decline or a continuation platform in an upward trend. Only with the right position does the success rate of the pattern increase.
For example: Bitcoin forms a double bottom structure at a key support level, and only then do I pay attention to the bullish signals that appear.
Simple structure, easy to understand.
Good patterns shouldn't make people conflicted. For example, when moving averages transition from convergence to upward divergence, and the K-line forms a clear 'bullish engulfing' or 'breakout from a triangle consolidation,' these signals are direct and clear, requiring no guessing.
I particularly like the first divergence after the moving averages converge—this usually indicates clear movement of the main funds.
The execution standards are clear and can be mechanized.
Where to enter? Where to stop loss? Where is the first target? It must be as clear as a mathematical formula.
For example: When the 55-period EMA shifts from flat to upward, enter when the price breaks out with volume, set the stop loss below the previous low, and take profit by referencing previous resistance levels. Executing this won't leave room for hesitation.
Strong repeatability, can be validated frequently.
The patterns I choose must be 'regular guests' in the market, such as moving average golden crosses/dead crosses, Bollinger Band squeeze breakouts, etc. They appear repeatedly across different cycles and different cryptocurrencies, which allows for continuous practice to improve the win rate.
3. Case sharing: How did I capture clear markets?
Last year I captured a typical market, and here I'll simplify the logic (Note: Not investment advice, for reference only):
Background: ETH has undergone a long period of oscillation on the 15-minute chart, with moving averages (MA5, MA10, MA30) gradually converging and trading volume shrinking.
Key signal:
The moving averages begin to diverge upward from convergence, forming a 'bullish arrangement.'
Price breaks above the upper Bollinger Band while the momentum indicator EWO turns from negative to positive, confirming bullish momentum.
If it doesn't break MA10 during a pullback, it forms a second buying point.
Operation:
Entry: Buy when pulling back to the moving average support.
Stop loss: Place it below the low of the previous K-line.
Take profit: Refer to previous high resistance areas and exit in batches.
The reason I was able to capture this market wave is that the pattern shifted from 'chaotic' to 'clear.' I don't need to predict the direction; I just need to wait for the market to form a standard structure on its own, then follow suit.
In conclusion: Repeating simple things is professionalism.
As traders, we have all tried to capture every fluctuation. But after maturing, we realize that real profits come from extreme focus on simple markets.
When the market is chaotic, learn to stay out.
When the pattern is clear, be bold in striking.
'Don't look at chaotic lines, don't buy scattered shapes' is not a technique, but discipline. It helps you filter out uncertainty and only make money within your understanding. I hope everyone can find that kind of pattern that is 'easy to understand at a glance' and take it to the extreme. After all, we don't need to get every market right; we just need to repeat the right actions.
Focus on A Ke, bringing you more first-hand information and precise points of knowledge in the crypto world, becoming your guide in the crypto space; learning is your greatest wealth!#加密市场观察 #ETH走势分析 $ETH
