Regarding the judgment of bulls and bears, there is not much disagreement in the market now, and more and more people are beginning to assume that we have entered a bear market. However, from the perspective of long-term holders' sentiment and panic indicators, we are still in the green zone, which is "belief - doubt." And this "doubt" is precisely the true mainstream sentiment in the current market.

From more detailed data, it is indeed true that we have recently briefly touched the yellow zone (optimistic - anxious). If prices continue to decline, further weakening of sentiment can be expected. But at least from the behavior of long-term holders, there has been no typical systemic withdrawal or panic selling that is seen in bear markets.

At the same time, the BTC inventory on exchanges is still declining, which indicates that the chips willing to be sold are decreasing, and more BTC is being transferred to long-term holding status, with high-net-worth funds continuing to accumulate. Many people may ask, since buying behavior has been ongoing, why are prices still falling? The reason is that current buying is more passive and allocation-based; it changes the supply structure rather than short-term prices.

The decline in exchange reserves itself is a signal that is somewhat long-term and structural, indicating that future supply shocks are weakening, but short-term prices are still primarily determined by the macro environment, leveraged funds, liquidity, and sentiment. In simple terms, the willingness to sell is decreasing, but short-term speculation is still ongoing.

From the turnover rate, there are still a large number of intraday trades in the market, and prices are mainly pulled back and forth by this portion of short-term funds, while long-term funds have gradually exited pricing power. This is also the core reason why liquidity appears to exist now, but effective liquidity is continuously declining.