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$BNB

Those who can truly profit from information arbitrage are either those who are in the game or the major players sitting on the other side of the table.

The "information" you see is often just a tool for amplification that others have set up in advance.

You think you are the first to capture the information,

but in reality, you are just a passive participant in creating the sentiment before the market moves.

$ONDO SEC has been investigating for two years without filing any charges, and the biggest negative factor has been exhausted!

The positive factors have upgraded, ONDO's compliance foundation is stable, and institutional funds are next targeting the RWA narrative, with on-chain TVL breaking 500 million dollars.

The recent trend clearly supports around 0.44, and one can position near this level, placing a stop-loss below 0.4. Speaking of this, some brothers might say what to do if there is a large amount of unlocking later; we will talk about that later!

At least this wave of the RWA narrative has firmly established itself, and traditional giants are much bolder about going on-chain.

Supplementary point: The dot plot is essentially a summary of the personal judgments of the 19 Federal Reserve committee members regarding future interest rates, economic growth, inflation, and employment. Each dot represents an individual's stance. The more concentrated the dots, the more unified the opinions; the more scattered the dots, the more apparent the internal disagreements about future direction.

This December's dot plot is more worth watching than usual, as it not only shows how interest rates will move next year but also implies three variables:

The committee's latest assessment of the economic environment for next year

A subtle attitude towards whether adjustments to the policy path are needed

Uncertainties in policy preferences brought about by a potential new chair next year

In other words, this dot plot is more like an "early vote" from 19 individuals on the policy landscape for the entire year ahead, with disagreements potentially more pronounced than the market expects.

In simple terms: Tonight's dot plot is unlikely to provide a clear and unified direction for interest rates, but rather may leave the market even more uncertain about the policy path for next year.

$SYRUP This token can be added to the watchlist. I actually have a high level of interest in this coin. I started shorting it not long after it was launched. At that time, everyone knew that new coins generally fell continuously. I was also shorting it, but its price stubbornly rose in small steps. Naturally, my short positions were frequently stopped out.

Then I changed my strategy and researched the project. It turned out that it was not a new coin but rather a split from MPL 1:100. The project team buys back a portion of the revenue every quarter, and it belongs to the RWA sector, which I have always been optimistic about. So, back in May, I shared it at 0.24, and it subsequently rose all the way to 0.67!

I thought it could rise even higher, but it fell to 0.49. I realized I had to maintain some profits, so I reduced my position by 70%. Due to my continuous holdings, I generally check its related dynamics every couple of days!

Now it ranks fifth and sixth in asset management scale (AUM) with syrupUSDC and syrupUSDT, respectively, and is steadily rising. Maple is steadily advancing towards on-chain asset management standards through $SYRUP , which indicates it can provide strong support for the long-term growth of the project itself!

Returning to the K-line, the rise in May began at 0.23 and strengthened all the way. This recent correction also dropped to around 0.23 but rebounded. This can be seen as strong support. If the market tests this support again, then this position could represent a bottom area. Therefore, I suggest my brothers set buy orders in the range of 0.23–0.24, with a stop-loss below 0.2. Of course, if any brothers find this unstable, they can only allocate the initial position mentioned above, reserving space for potential further purchases!

Currently, there are generally three types of market making in the counterfeit world:

1. The 'wild stock type' relies on shouting orders and creating hotspots, using volume to set the pace, reducing self-capital investment, and pushing prices through multiple accounts.
The method is to raise (or smash) spot and contracts to eat the opponent's orders, with a small amount of capital, targeting the worst liquidity moments.
Mainly active in second-tier exchanges, leaning towards ultra-short-term, most afraid of mice warehouses running early.

2. The 'heavy capital type' with high control and eating funding fees/spot premiums does not require market volume at all, relying entirely on funding rates or spot price differences to attract natural liquidity.
The chips need to be controlled to over 95%, and you need at least 10M USD to start playing.
Common tactics: first control the market, then raise (or smash), attracting the opponent's orders. Spot relies on natural transactions to slowly offload. In the early stages, it will wash the plate to reduce costs.
This type is not too afraid of mouse warehouses, but they will take away a bit of profit.

2.5. Further 'eating rates' based on 2
Chips must start at least 90%, under the premise of high control, first wash, then card the rate rhythm: smash when the rate is positive, raise when the rate is negative.
However, funding rates are essentially very dependent on the opponent's orders. If the market has no one to take it, the rate at most counts as 'rent,' and the real core profit still comes from the direction of spot and contracts eating deep.
This type is completely unafraid of mouse warehouses and even likes them to raise the price.

3. Violent control type
Commonly seen in new projects with a lot of air-dropped circulation.
Directly violent, throwing money and depth, no explanation.
Some projects prepare 100M+ for market making funds, and mouse warehouses basically do not survive to the end.

Several inconspicuous but very accurate details of liquidity regression:

The market has shown obvious bearish signals (regulation, poor data, institutional failures), and as a result, prices only fell symbolically for a moment before being pulled back up.

This indicates that the bears have run out of steam; those who needed to cut losses have done so, leaving only the stubborn bulls—no one is selling regardless of what happens.

OTC premiums have started to quietly rise.
Veteran traders understand: when the U price moves first and the market hasn’t moved, it means more money is coming in and less is going out, and buying pressure is secretly strengthening.

Junk coins and memes have suddenly started to spike, and the feeling of missing out is beginning to soar.
A typical feature of liquidity regression is: funds start to become arrogant while people become cautious. When retail investors miss out, their eyes immediately turn to those assets that haven’t moved much but have large fluctuations.

The direction of exchange pinning has changed.
In a bear market, pinning is done upwards to collect longs; however, before a bull market, it often inexplicably pins down to wash out leverage, and this happens without any bearish news.

A couple of days ago, I talked about lowering interest rates by 25 basis points, which is basically not surprising. The more critical issue is the dot plot, where the median is likely to indicate only two rate cuts. The market's previous hopes for three or four cuts are basically out of the question.

Powell's speech is expected to be similar to the one at the end of October, leaning towards a hawkish tone, with the key point being "how hawkish he will be." For example: no guarantee of another cut next time, completely data-dependent, inflation may have eased but risks still remain—if he delivers these points more firmly, market sentiment could turn cooler in the short term.

The area that could potentially exceed expectations is whether he will also announce bond purchases (mainly short-term bonds) or provide clearer signals on RRP/repo operations. Reserves have already dropped to levels seen at the end of 2022, and overall liquidity has remained tight, with SOFR repeatedly hitting the upper limit of the corridor. This is a situation the Fed does not want to see, as excessive tightness can lead to accidents.

For Powell, what he seeks now is "balance." Lowering rates gives the market a gesture, but he will never allow the market to bet more optimistically about the future—after all, there are significant internal disagreements within the Fed at this time.

For the market, of course, there is a desire for a clear path. The shadow chairman has already drawn the broad direction for everyone, but at this point in time, the power of discourse still lies with the current chair. If Powell is unwilling to clarify today, then tonight's volatility is sure to be significant.

$AVAX The online chart looks very much like a double bottom pattern. According to historical trends, this type of pattern is likely to first experience a large volume market move, and then enter a consolidation phase. When the daily tunnel truly forms a golden cross, that wave will mark the beginning of a rapid surge. In other words, we are currently in a preparatory stage.

$BTC This purple area has been crossed so many times since the first line was drawn that I can't count it anymore. Every time we reach the reversal line on the 21st, it immediately goes silent, leaving one utterly frustrated, and there's a kind of impulse to want to 'm' someone!

It's late at night, sending a red envelope

Many people's gap with wealth in this lifetime is not about not being able to earn money, but about not being able to keep the 'first pot of gold'.

For ordinary people, saving the first million is already very difficult, but those who can truly turn things around are those who are not in a hurry to spend their money.

Why?
Because one million is not the end point, but the ticket to the world where 'money works for you'. Those who can cross this threshold let it continue to appreciate, while those who cannot just throw their money away at the door and start over.

In reality, too many people’s first reaction is not to invest, but to reward themselves: changing cars, changing bags, changing equipment, changing lifestyles. It seems like improving life, but in fact, it's consuming future possibilities in advance.

The car bought a few years ago lost half its value, the new watch is sleeping in the drawer, and the new phone is outdated in a year; the funds that could have been a springboard have been drained by desire.

Those who truly understand money treat the first million as a tool to let it 'generate money'.

If placed in a stable place earning 4%-6%, the annual returns can equal someone else's six months' salary. Ten years' worth could buy a car, twenty years could be a down payment on a house, and thirty years could be the second accumulation explosion point in life.

The key is: the principal cannot be touched.
Don't dismantle the money-making machine and force yourself to go back to manual labor. This isn't being stingy; it's the only path for ordinary people to reverse their fortunes.

Buffett is great, not because he earns quickly, but because for decades he has been consistent: not buying recklessly, not spending recklessly, and not cashing in for instant gratification. His old saying is particularly realistic: every unnecessary expense is a little cut into future freedom.

True luxury is not about buying expensive things, but about having the freedom to 'do whatever I want'. If you don’t want to work overtime, you can refuse; if you want to rest, you can stop at any time; if you want to change jobs, you don’t have to watch others’ faces. The power of choice comes from assets, not from salary.

So, what is the first million?
It’s not just a number; it's the 'watershed' of your life. If handled well, it will grow into decades of security and freedom; if handled poorly, it will only bring a brief sense of pleasure, and then you’ll return to square one.

Your first pot of gold is not meant to reward your past self, but to empower your future self.

When you can buy bags, change cars, and upgrade your life with earnings, that is true financial freedom. At that point, you are not spending money for the sake of face, but living for the sake of life—those are two completely different lives.

I just knew that Standard Chartered Bank would definitely lower its expectations. The last bull market was like this too, looking at 96,000 when Bitcoin was over 60,000. This time, looking at 200,000 when it’s over 120,000. I remember when Standard Chartered Bank made its last prediction, I said that this is a contrarian indicator, just shouting to increase market liquidity.

If you say others don’t have strength, they definitely do, at least they have their own top analyst team. So why do they get it wrong? You don’t need to think; it’s definitely intentional. When there isn’t a sentiment hotspot, new liquidity injections are needed. Don't you all remember? These so-called institutions always seem to paint a picture when the sentiment is hot!

Then when the sentiment is low, they sing a different tune!

The market in April experienced a surge, with the weekly volume of $BTC showing overbought conditions and price fluctuations for several weeks, choosing to break upwards. This wave has formed a similar pattern, indicating oversold signals!

Next, we only need to focus on the signals in the blue range. Until we stabilize, we should continue to make moves based on rebounds and range fluctuations. Once we break through the blue range, the market will show a reversal!

Now the market is filled with pessimistic voices. Some say Bitcoin will drop to 70,000, and some foreign influencers say the stock market and crypto will face a bloodbath. JPMorgan says interest rate cuts have already been fully priced in, and what follows is a wave of profit-taking.

When bad news concentrates, it is actually a time for reflection. The market never moves as expected when everyone is unanimously bearish.

I have been thinking lately, if it is chaotic now, what will 2026 look like? There are several possibilities:

First, the macro environment over the past two years has been too extreme, with high interest rates, fiscal tightening, geopolitical frictions, and inflationary pressures all overlapping, each factor capable of altering funding pricing logic. Historically, such phases often require one to two years for the market to reprice risk premiums. This means that 2026 is likely to be a year of position cleaning, valuation system rebuilding, and clarity of direction.

Second, the market hotspots over the past two years have mainly relied on AI narratives, but in the crypto space, there is no direct value support outside of MEME. The real momentum accumulators are on-chain financial assets, RWA, and stablecoins, with clear institutional demand and gradually maturing infrastructure. Extending these trends to 2026 is likely to foster a sustainable business model.

Third, there is currently a divergence between assets, with the NASDAQ and NVDA strong, while BTC is weak. This divergence will not last long. In a macro extreme → reversion cycle, asset correlations usually converge, and this kind of inflection has occurred multiple times in history.

Having said so much, it is essentially just speculation. Everyone has different positions, mindsets, and operations. How the market ultimately moves is not determined by what I say, nor by news, but by time.

But one thing will not change: the chips of wealth have long been redistributed. Many people have already been washed out, and many are even unaware that they are merely part of the game.

Hassett has suddenly changed his style in the past few days.

Previously, he would often hint externally that "I am the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve," but now on CNBC he suddenly starts to praise Waller, Bowman, and Walsh, saying that the choices Trump has to make are "very difficult."

This contrast is not accidental.

In fact, he is now deliberately lowering his tone, most likely paving the way for future nominations.

Because the position of Federal Reserve Chairman is not just decided by the White House, it also has to go through the Banking Committee and the Senate, and these two stages are the easiest places for complications to arise.

Being too ostentatious = easily attracts resistance.

Now holding back a bit = leaving space for the team to make political groundwork.

In the past month, Hassett has maintained a "of course it's me" posture, which I found a bit dangerous at the time.

In American politics, the more someone acts as if it is a matter of course in public, the easier it is to be stabbed in the back at critical moments.

However, since last week, his attitude has clearly cooled, which is a typical rhythm of "preparing to enter the scene while minimizing risks."

In other words, his silence and low profile signal an increase in winning probability.

This also aligns with Trump's recent actions:

The team has clearly begun to layout according to the "Hassett route," with the goal of reducing friction after the nomination, allowing the confirmation process to pass with minimal resistance.

Interestingly, although Hassett's probability on Polymarket has slightly decreased by 1%, he still firmly holds the first place.

This actually reflects that the market has picked up on his "lowering tone," but has yet to realize that it is actually a positive factor.

Originally, I thought Waller's chances of passing were higher than Hassett's, but the situation has reversed over the past two weeks.

Trump's adjustments, Hassett's cooling off, and the market's reactions are all pointing in the same direction:

This matter is probably already decided.

The photos of the blue battle didn't spread so quickly, looking at this, what kind of kidnapping is this? This is clearly a setup; they insist on creating the persona of a kidnapped person!$

I saw this market pattern back in 2019!

Today, the CFTC sent a very critical signal:

The U.S. derivatives regulatory body is preparing to truly bring digital assets into the "compliant financial system."

They have launched a "digital asset collateral pilot." The meaning is very simple:

In the future, when engaging in derivatives, collateral does not necessarily have to be cash and government bonds; BTC, ETH, USDC, and others can also be used as margin.

Previously, even if institutions held a large amount of crypto assets, these assets could only sit in exchanges or custodial institutions, unable to enter the regulated derivatives collateral system, and their value was completely "locked off-chain."

This time, the CFTC's concession essentially pushes crypto assets to the doorstep of U.S. financial infrastructure.

There are three obvious trend changes involved:
1) The regulatory attitude has changed; it is no longer just passive observation.

The CFTC's active pilot indicates that the regulatory body has begun to find a path for "the collateralization of digital assets."

This is a step from "risk assets" to "assets that can be incorporated into the system."

2) On-chain assets are being taken seriously.
Not just BTC and ETH, but also USDC, and even future on-chain government bonds, could be included in the collateral list.

This directly touches on the future business models of banks, clearing houses, and custodians.

3) The "institutional status" of BTC and ETH has been advanced.
By including them in the collateral pilot, the CFTC is telling the market:

These assets are not toys; they are financial assets that can be risk-managed, can be cleared, and can be regulated.

More importantly, this pilot will change a core pain point for institutions: capital efficiency.

Previously, traders engaged in BTC and ETH derivatives on the CME, but the margin still had to be in cash or government bonds, while the spot holdings had no collateral value at all.

This created an awkward situation: the positions had value, but could not be utilized.

If the pilot goes smoothly, in the future, spot assets can directly be used as collateral, meaning:

The capital attributes of spot assets will be enhanced

Institutional costs will decrease

Willingness to hold spot assets will increase

The capital utilization rate of market makers will improve

The downward elasticity of prices will be weakened

Such changes often do not immediately reflect in prices, but belong to the category of "institutional dividends" —

Once integrated into the clearing system, the pricing methods will be permanently changed.