Crypto麻子新

Open -- Contract -- Today's Profit and Loss -- Funding Fees and Transaction Fees.
You can see your fees for the past year. If you should spend, save what you can!

Use my link to automatically reverse 20% and manually reverse 15%, which means you can reduce 35% of the fees, which should be the highest in the entire network. The manual reverse part is settled once a month. Don't underestimate the fees. Even if you are a small retail investor, the fees you incur in a year are unimaginable! If you trade frequently, you may save enough to buy a BBA in a year.

Xiaoxin exclusive link: https://www.marketwebb.club/join?ref=RC67WKBY
Exclusive invitation code: RC67WKBY

What if you have already registered? I can give you a tutorial. You don't need to change your mobile phone number or identity to re-authenticate. It only takes about ten minutes to get it done!

币安聊天室链接！

$BNB

I said that July would bounce back a bit—no problem, right? The market started rebounding yesterday, which is July 1st.

Good morning, brothers.

$MSTR Yesterday what was given was a callback to 85—an excellent time to open a position. Then the low dipped to 83. And now it has already come up to 96. My brothers, are you feeling like no matter whether the market is good or not, what I say hardly ever doesn’t go up, right?

ETF continued outflows are undoubtedly one of the key reasons BTC is under pressure in this round.

Many people see BlackRock’s net outflows every day and think institutions have started to collectively flee. But when you look at the data, things are not that simple.

Since IBIT was launched, its cumulative net inflows have still exceeded $60 billion. Even through this round of adjustment, it still holds about 750,000 BTC. A drop in net asset value comes partly from fund outflows, but a bigger reason is that BTC’s own price has fallen—so it can’t be simply understood as all these holdings being sold.

What really needs attention is: who is behind these positions.

IBIT’s capital can be broadly divided into four categories: arbitrage capital, wealth management capital, family offices, and long-term funds such as pension money. Among them, the part that trades most frequently—and is therefore most likely to create selling pressure—is actually arbitrage capital. This portion doesn’t earn money from BTC price increases; instead, it profits from spot ETF and futures basis arbitrage.

After the 1011 event, market demand for leverage clearly declined. The CME basis has been narrowing continuously, arbitrage returns keep getting lower, and many institutions naturally choose to close positions and exit. At the same time, the stronger performance of other assets in U.S. stocks, gold, and so on has also diverted some capital.

In the past few months, ETF outflows have largely been driven by this segment of capital withdrawing, while long-term allocation capital has not shown large-scale loosening.

In other words, although ETF selling pressure is still present, the most sensitive part of the funds—those most likely to leave first—has already released a significant amount. Whether selling pressure continues to build depends more on macro liquidity, investors’ risk appetite, and whether new capital is willing to re-enter, rather than simply watching whether ETFs are inflowing or outflowing day by day.

So yes, ETFs are indeed an important factor suppressing BTC in this round, but there’s no need to attribute all the declines to it. What the market truly lacks has never been sell orders—it’s new incremental capital.

This chart of the bear-market bottom has recently been quite controversial.

Using the historical drawdown to “cut a boat by the chart”—i.e., applying past declines to estimate this cycle’s BTC bottom—the bottom for this round is calculated to be around $30,000. That’s why many people treat $30,000 as the ultimate dip-buy target.

But there’s also a view that this market cycle isn’t exactly the same as history. The sudden event of “1011” interrupted the market’s rhythm. This round’s top may not be the true, fully completed top in the strict sense. If the top has changed, then simply copying the historical formula to estimate the bottom naturally reduces its reference value.

In the market, what’s truly difficult isn’t judging the bottom—it’s executing the strategy. No one can guarantee they buy at the absolute lowest point. Instead of betting on one perfect move, it’s better to start gradually buying when the price is about 20% above your expected bottom.

Will the micro-strategy cause problems? Only by experiencing it can you know—black swans have always been recognized only after the fact.

FTX, LUNA, and “1011” are all like that. If a risk has already been discussed repeatedly across the entire market, it has likely already been priced in gradually. It’s hard to call it a black swan anymore.

So rather than arguing every day whether the bottom is $30,000, $50,000, or whether it really doesn’t matter, I will start urging everyone to gradually buy the dip when the price is within about 20% of my expectation.

Although in the short term I expect the market to rebound, in the long term we still haven’t reached my 20% target. What I’ve done so far has been evident to all. So do you believe I can continue to lead you in buying the dip?

$CRCL If it can reach the 30–40 range, just blindly go all-in—no need to overthink. Anyone saying it’s going to crash should go research their lineup and you’ll see how powerful they are. Don’t be afraid of a dip; a dip is just giving everyone an opportunity. Don’t accept any rebuttals.

Hello July, please treat everyone kindly!

How should we say that our space exploration $SPCX has already reached 170? Now nobody complains about being slow, right? I can persuade the community to stay on track, but posting is more subtle. Like when I posted back then, I emphasized that I’m still holding. A red market will be favorable—though whether I hold or not isn’t something I’m forcing.

If I had to choose one keyword for the first half of 2026, I would pick: convergence.

Honestly, throughout the first half, there wasn’t a genuinely new narrative that truly changed the industry’s landscape. Besides exchanges rolling out support for US stocks and US-stock tokens—moving traditional financial assets into Crypto—there were only HyperLiquid that truly emerged through products and data.

Back then, what people talked about most was cross-chain: how to connect different public chains. Now the discussion has shifted to cross-scenario, cross-asset.

Phantom is a great example. After integrating DeBridge, it can connect the Solana and EVM ecosystems. After integrating HyperLiquid, the wallet directly gains perpetual trading capabilities. From a simple token-holding tool, it gradually evolves into an all-in-one entry point for trading and asset management.

More importantly, what users trade is no longer only crypto assets. On the same interface, BTC, ETH, SOL, HYPE, as well as the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, crude oil, and silver—traditional financial assets—now appear side by side. The boundary between Crypto and TradeFi is becoming increasingly blurred.

Perhaps this is the biggest change of the year.

In the past, people competed based on which chain had higher TPS and a stronger ecosystem. Now, the comparison is about who can connect more assets, more users, and more trading scenarios together. In the future, real competition may not necessarily happen between chains, but between different financial systems.

The first half of 2026 hasn’t brought many stories that make people feel genuinely excited, but the direction of the industry’s development is becoming clearer and clearer. Web3 is no longer just Web3—it is constantly extending into a larger financial market.

Hopefully, in the second half, besides convergence, we’ll also see truly new narratives that belong to the crypto market—rather than continuing to borrow momentum from traditional finance.

$smtru If I could get back to the turning-point position below, it would basically be a perfect long setup—around 85, I guess.

Historically, whenever there have been consecutive declines in May and June, July ($BTC ) has generally performed well. So, what are your thoughts on this July?

A four-year cycle, alternating bull and bear markets. This bull run isn’t worse than any previous one, and this bear market isn’t any easier either. During the bull market, everyone makes money together and feels invincible; during the bear market, it seems like the whole world is making money—except you.

In fact, the bear market feels even worse this time—not necessarily because the market is worse, but because there’s too much information. In the past, when people scrolled on Weibo, what they mainly saw was still the crypto space. Now everyone scrolls on X every day: US stocks, AI, Nvidia, Palantir, Circle—one after another, taking over the screen. Even crypto-native exchanges have started embracing US stocks. It’s easy to develop a delusion: everyone else has gone to US stocks to get rich, and only you are still stuck in the crypto market.

But the truth isn’t like that. Social media only puts the most aggressively rising stocks, the people who made the most money, and the most outrageous screenshot gains right in front of you. Just like short-form videos: you always see luxury cars, mansions, and the freedom to be independently wealthy, but you never see that more ordinary people’s accounts are also retreating, getting trapped, and enduring the long wait.

Your grandpa was a farmer. Your father went to the city to work. You go to university and find a stable job—that’s the most common life trajectory for ordinary families.

Your grandpa is a farmer, but you directly become Wang Jianlin; you’re born as a second-generation rich kid—that’s just a fantasy web novel.

Investing is the same. The people who can truly cross cycles are, by nature, a small minority. Don’t doubt your own choices just because someone else caught a ten-bagger. And don’t assume you missed the whole era just because US stocks are stronger this time.

The market is always rotating. No market keeps rising forever, and no market stays dormant forever.

What most easily destroys people in a bear market isn’t losing money—it’s comparison. When you watch other people’s shining moments every day, then turn back to look at your own account, your mindset naturally gets worse and worse.

$SPCX How is it? Did it start today? I said yesterday that this thing has advantages and benefits ahead!

Many people have been worried that MicroStrategy’s preferred stock could become an ever-growing burden, and this latest 8-K at least puts the biggest short-term concerns to rest.

Two things disclosed on Monday are worth paying attention to: first, STRC’s dividend yield was raised again—from 11.5% to 12%. This is the second adjustment this month. They first switched to half-monthly dividend payments, then increased the dividend yield, suggesting that management wants to keep the product’s appeal steady. Second, last week MicroStrategy issued an additional 12.669 million shares of MSTR, raising about $1.152 billion. However, rather than continuing to buy BTC, it used all of the proceeds to replenish its U.S. dollar reserves.

MicroStrategy’s dollar reserves are now at $2.55 billion. Based on interest and dividend payments under the existing preferred stock, this is sufficient to cover obligations until around October 2027. That means over the next little more than a year, it won’t need to sell BTC out of necessity to pay dividends, and it doesn’t have to rush to raise more financing to plug the gap.

This also aligns with Saylor’s style over the years. When the market is hot, they raise funds; when the market is weak, they preserve cash—prioritizing liquidity safety above all else. Many people think he will just blindly go all-in on BTC, but that’s mostly talk. In reality, he’s always been very precise about cash flow and capital structure.

Of course, this doesn’t mean MicroStrategy has no risks. What truly affects MSTR’s valuation is still the BTC price and its future ability to raise financing. But at least judging by this 8-K, the worry that the preferred stock could blow up in the short term can be put on hold for now.

MicroStrategy managed to play itself out of the game with its own actions—going from previously only buying $BTC without ever selling, to now always being able to sell to bail itself out.

Although they haven’t started yet, once their own common shares are sold off, it’s hard to say what happens next. Last week, they dumped MSTR common stock and raised approximately $1.152 billion, boosting the company’s U.S. dollar reserves to $2.55 billion.

$龙虾 Dream storage begins to enter the rhythm that belongs to it!

More than three months have passed. Every time, the fight starts right before the weekend. On Monday, talks begin again—why, in three months, has the market not become desensitized to this event?

$币安人生 has such a trend—naturally, it means the chips are extremely concentrated. So, brother, don’t let the main force offload to you. They’ll drag the campaign out for a long time, then leave everyone with the mess they created.

Does Binance’s “life” have potential? If it were to drop another tenfold or eightfold, that would be very promising. But as it stands now, it doesn’t have much potential.