Now the market is filled with pessimistic voices. Some say Bitcoin will drop to 70,000, and some foreign influencers say the stock market and crypto will face a bloodbath. JPMorgan says interest rate cuts have already been fully priced in, and what follows is a wave of profit-taking.

When bad news concentrates, it is actually a time for reflection. The market never moves as expected when everyone is unanimously bearish.

I have been thinking lately, if it is chaotic now, what will 2026 look like? There are several possibilities:

First, the macro environment over the past two years has been too extreme, with high interest rates, fiscal tightening, geopolitical frictions, and inflationary pressures all overlapping, each factor capable of altering funding pricing logic. Historically, such phases often require one to two years for the market to reprice risk premiums. This means that 2026 is likely to be a year of position cleaning, valuation system rebuilding, and clarity of direction.

Second, the market hotspots over the past two years have mainly relied on AI narratives, but in the crypto space, there is no direct value support outside of MEME. The real momentum accumulators are on-chain financial assets, RWA, and stablecoins, with clear institutional demand and gradually maturing infrastructure. Extending these trends to 2026 is likely to foster a sustainable business model.

Third, there is currently a divergence between assets, with the NASDAQ and NVDA strong, while BTC is weak. This divergence will not last long. In a macro extreme → reversion cycle, asset correlations usually converge, and this kind of inflection has occurred multiple times in history.

Having said so much, it is essentially just speculation. Everyone has different positions, mindsets, and operations. How the market ultimately moves is not determined by what I say, nor by news, but by time.

But one thing will not change: the chips of wealth have long been redistributed. Many people have already been washed out, and many are even unaware that they are merely part of the game.