Hassett has suddenly changed his style in the past few days.

Previously, he would often hint externally that "I am the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve," but now on CNBC he suddenly starts to praise Waller, Bowman, and Walsh, saying that the choices Trump has to make are "very difficult."

This contrast is not accidental.

In fact, he is now deliberately lowering his tone, most likely paving the way for future nominations.

Because the position of Federal Reserve Chairman is not just decided by the White House, it also has to go through the Banking Committee and the Senate, and these two stages are the easiest places for complications to arise.

Being too ostentatious = easily attracts resistance.

Now holding back a bit = leaving space for the team to make political groundwork.

In the past month, Hassett has maintained a "of course it's me" posture, which I found a bit dangerous at the time.

In American politics, the more someone acts as if it is a matter of course in public, the easier it is to be stabbed in the back at critical moments.

However, since last week, his attitude has clearly cooled, which is a typical rhythm of "preparing to enter the scene while minimizing risks."

In other words, his silence and low profile signal an increase in winning probability.

This also aligns with Trump's recent actions:

The team has clearly begun to layout according to the "Hassett route," with the goal of reducing friction after the nomination, allowing the confirmation process to pass with minimal resistance.

Interestingly, although Hassett's probability on Polymarket has slightly decreased by 1%, he still firmly holds the first place.

This actually reflects that the market has picked up on his "lowering tone," but has yet to realize that it is actually a positive factor.

Originally, I thought Waller's chances of passing were higher than Hassett's, but the situation has reversed over the past two weeks.

Trump's adjustments, Hassett's cooling off, and the market's reactions are all pointing in the same direction:

This matter is probably already decided.