Bitcoin has seen a decline of 22.54% so far this quarter, marking its largest quarterly drop since 2018. With less than 10 days remaining until the end of the year, it now seems unlikely that Bitcoin will reach the optimistic price targets predicted by many analysts.
Market experts are now reassessing short-term expectations, explaining how Bitcoin could end the current year and what 2026 might hold for this asset.
An expert points to critical levels for Bitcoin as markets approach the end of the year
After Bitcoin peaked in October, it faced headwinds in the market. The currency closed the last two months in the red according to CoinGlass data.
It declined by 3.69% in October, followed by a sharper decline of 17.67% in November. So far this month, Bitcoin has dropped by 2.31%.
The digital currency has struggled to regain a strong foothold above the $90,000 level. It is now trading at prices lower than those seen at the beginning of the year. Meanwhile, the weak pace of demand growth, the slowdown in spot ETF fund flows, and professional investors engaging in selling have heightened the downside risks for Bitcoin.
The selling pressure has continued in recent sessions, with Bitcoin declining by an additional 1.8% over the past 24 hours. At the time of writing, it was trading at $87,183.
Ray Yusuf, CEO of NoOnes told BeInCrypto that Bitcoin is still "stuck in a compressed sideways range." The complex macro conditions have made it difficult for Bitcoin to regain upward momentum below the $90,000 level, with tightening liquidity conditions and deteriorating risk appetite.
Yusuf added that buyers defended the support at $85,000. However, they were unsuccessful in overcoming strong selling pressure at the year's starting point around $93,000.
Options market data shows a tug-of-war between market participants. Put options are clustering around $85,000, while call options are located between $100,000 and $120,000.
Yusuf explained that the upcoming expiration of options contracts, additional data about the U.S. government shutdown, and the U.S. Federal Reserve injecting $6.8 billion in liquidity could trigger short-term volatility. However, the overall market trend remains undecided.
He stated that until Bitcoin decisively breaks the upper resistance at $93,000 or loses structural support at $85,000, btc is likely to remain within the range and volatile as the year comes to an end.
The executive clarified that although it has fallen over 30% from October's highs, the holdings of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF funds have not decreased by more than 5%, indicating that institutional allocators are largely maintaining their positions during the current market downturn.
He revealed that the majority of selling pressure comes from individual investors, especially those using leverage and on a short-term basis. Yusuf pointed to $85,000 as a critical level to monitor as the end of 2025 approaches.
Breaking this range could increase the likelihood of a deeper correction towards the demand area at $73,000.
Yusuf predicted that breaking the support level could leave institutional allocators facing a decision as prices approach their purchase costs at around $80,000, and that regaining the $94,000 level is necessary to restore upward momentum in the market towards its previous highs.
Bitcoin forecast for 2026
Farzam Ihsani, the CEO of VALR, stated that the recent period of the year has become one of the most challenging for cryptocurrencies in recent years. He cited seasonal factors, ongoing market weakness, and a renewed shift in investor interests towards more conservative instruments, particularly U.S. government bonds.
Ihsani added that market liquidity remains limited, and at the same time, institutional participants are increasingly adopting a wait-and-see approach with a priority on preserving capital.
Ihsani also pointed out that the current correction highlights the fragility of the market and its continued exposure to panic selling. According to him, there are only two logical conclusions that explain this.
He first explained that one or more major market participants, such as funds, banks, or even sovereign entities, may be in the process of positioning for large purchases.
He mentioned that in this case, the exchange rate decline is likely to be artificial, and the price will rise again after a temporary drop.
Instead, the market may be overly saturated. The weakness of the dollar, resulting from increasing U.S. government debt, has led to a decline in demand for cryptocurrencies as high-risk assets.
He clarified that this is a trend that has intensified due to the Federal Reserve's policy, and in this case, the cryptocurrency market may take more than a year to recover.
The executive also predicted that Bitcoin would record a new historical price peak in the first half of 2026, with the possibility of prices returning to the $100,000–$120,000 range by the second quarter.
He said a renewed historic price surge could occur as early as the first half of 2026, with expectations of a return to the $100,000–$120,000 range in the second quarter. Historical data showed that the early months of the year are not particularly active: traders adopt a wait-and-see approach while markets look for new growth catalysts and additional opportunities.
The CEO of VALR emphasized that the critical factors next year will be the degree of institutional adoption, regulatory policies in the U.S. and internationally, and to some extent, the macroeconomic conditions of the world's largest economies.
