The first cryptocurrency has returned to values above $90,000, restoring upward momentum after a period of consolidation. A technical breakthrough on the chart, the positions of participants in the derivatives market, and activity in the spot ETF sector are creating conditions for increased volatility at the end of the year.
The current situation puts Bitcoin at a crossroads: continuation of growth to six-figure values or a short-term correction in low holiday liquidity conditions.
Technical analysis and market indicators
From a technical analysis perspective, the daily timeframe has recorded a breakout of the price from a descending triangle, which is transforming into a 'bullish wedge'. This event is traditionally seen as a signal to continue the long-term trend. At the same time, momentum above $90,000 confirms buyers' readiness to further pressure resistance levels.
On-chain metrics also indicate potential for growth. The realized price of Bitcoin (the average cost of acquiring all coins in the network) remains significantly below current market quotes. Historically, the asset peaks at cycle highs as it approaches the upper limits of the calculated ranges, where there is still a considerable distance at the moment. Therefore, current levels do not yet correspond to the market overheating phase.
Despite the positive sentiment, short-term risks are increasing due to the upcoming expiration of contracts on the Deribit exchange. On Friday, December 27, approximately 50% of open interest will expire, equivalent to about $24 billion in Bitcoin options and other derivatives.
According to Coin Bureau co-founder Nick Pakrin, traders may attempt to keep the price near the 'maximum pain' level ($96,000) to minimize option payouts. Such manipulations can amplify price fluctuations during Christmas trading hours when liquidity on exchanges traditionally decreases.
Institutional demand and ETF positions
The positions of institutional investors through spot ETFs also influence the psychology of market participants. According to Glassnode data, the average entry price for ETF buyers is around $83,000. This factor creates incentives to maintain quotes within the pre-New Year rally.
Analyst Ran Neuner believes that Bitcoin has a high chance of finishing the calendar year close to the $100,000 mark.
However, expert Lennart Snyder warns of the formation of a liquidity zone around $90,800. If the asset fails to secure above the resistance of $94,000, a local profit-taking may occur.
Michael van de Poppe views the current movement as part of a large-scale cyclical shift. He notes that maintaining support at the level of $86,500 confirms the market's transition to an early stage of sustainable growth. Further dynamics will depend on whether alternative digital assets can demonstrate faster growth rates compared to the market leader.
