The 'impossible triangle' of contract trading: Giving up perfection to profit
High win rate, high odds, replicability, you can only choose two.
The root of all losses almost stems from the delusion of achieving three things simultaneously:
High win rate (winning on every trade)
High odds (enough profit in one trade)
Replicability (long-term applicability)
However, these three are inherently the 'impossible triangle'.
High win rate and high odds are mutually exclusive
Pursuing a high win rate often requires sacrificing odds. For example, with a 'small profit, large loss' strategy, the win rate can reach 80%, but a single loss can wipe out ten profits.
Pursuing high odds must accept a low win rate.
For example, catching a trend may result in five consecutive losses, but the sixth profit covers all losses.
Replicability requires stability
A replicable strategy needs to find a balance between win rate and odds. An extreme pursuit of a high win rate or high odds will lead to strategy failure.
Solution: Actively give up one
Conservative approach: Prioritize win rate + replicability
For example: Only trade 4-hour level breakouts, with a risk-reward ratio of 1:1, but a win rate exceeding 60%, relying on frequency to accumulate profits.
Aggressive approach: Prioritize odds + replicability
For example: Lightly test orders in a daily trend, with a risk-reward ratio set at 1:3, tolerating a win rate below 40%.
The real trap is 'wanting both'
Most people lose because they seek a high win rate in a volatile market and greedy high odds in a trending market, ultimately leading to contradictory strategies and account shrinkage.
Key to breaking through
Clarify your own personality: Patient types choose stable paths, decisive types choose aggressive paths.
Solidify a model: Do not switch strategies arbitrarily within six months.
Accept imperfection: Allow losses, allow missing opportunities, in order to seize the market that belongs to you.
The market never rewards perfectionists, only rewards disciplined executors.
$RIVER
