The Midnight (NIGHT) token of Cardano launched strongly, but the momentum is no longer always in the same direction. The price of NIGHT has increased nearly 300% from the lows post-launch, and over the past seven days, the price has also risen nearly 70%. However, the overall atmosphere has changed rapidly.
In just the past 24 hours alone, the price of NIGHT has decreased by approximately 10%, currently trading around 0.095 USD.
This correction is significant because there are various hidden signals behind it. Some data points to continued accumulation by large players.
However, at the same time, other data suggests that there is accumulated selling pressure, especially from the inflow of coins into exchanges, which may be related to the airdrop distribution. As January 2026 approaches, the next move will depend on whether large players continue to participate rather than relying solely on excitement.
Whales are accumulating Midnight, but supply on the trading board is increasing.
On-chain holder data indicates a clear difference in behavior patterns.
The supply of NIGHT tokens on exchanges has increased significantly over the past 24 hours, with exchange holdings rising by 17.97%, bringing the total to approximately 166.14 million NIGHT tokens, reflecting a clear increase in selling activity.
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Considering the recent airdrop and distribution of Midnight, there is a high possibility that most of this coin flow comes from the first group of recipients moving to exchanges for profit.
At the same time, mega whales have acted in the opposite direction.
The top 100 addresses have increased their holdings by 1.52% over the past 24 hours, even though the price has decreased, which is equivalent to adding approximately 3.6 million NIGHT tokens on a day when prices were negative.
In the past seven days, this same group of mega whales has increased their holdings by more than 5.6%, continuing to buy during both price corrections and strong periods while the price has risen nearly 70% continuously.
This difference is considered very important because the inflow to exchanges reflects short-term selling often driven by retail investors, while accumulation by mega whales reflects a long-term positioning.
For January 2026, the balance between these two forces will impact direction more than price movement in the headlines.
The flow of funds and momentum indicate that large capital remains the most important.
Whale data is not isolated but closely aligns with what capital and momentum indicators show on the charts.
Starting with On-Balance Volume (OBV), which helps track whether volume is flowing into or out of an asset, on the 4-hour chart, OBV has pulled back along with prices over the past 24 hours, reflecting weakening short-term buying pressure at this time. The future of NIGHT's price depends on whether OBV can hold above the trend line.
However, the weakness of OBV alone does not tell the whole story.
Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) adds a layer of important data because CMF measures whether large funds are flowing into or out of the market.
CMF has moved above the zero line since December 20 and remains positive. Although it has been flat throughout the past day, it has not decreased. More importantly, between December 22-23, the price of NIGHT dipped on the 4-hour chart, but CMF continued to rise, which is considered a sign of bullish divergence.
This indicates that although the price has weakened, large wallets continue to absorb supply behind the scenes consistently.
This confirms data from Nansen showing that large whale groups are still increasing accumulation during price corrections, even as the volume of coins on the board increases.
One indicator that demonstrates the importance of large investments.
VWAP, or volume-weighted average price, helps connect these signals. VWAP shows the average price traded weighted by volume and often serves as a short-term trend guide. For NIGHT, it dropped below VWAP on December 22 and has not been able to reclaim that level since, reflecting short-term weakness and explaining why price momentum has stalled.
However, the same pattern has occurred in the past. On December 15, NIGHT traded below VWAP, at that time CMF rose from the negative zone, reflecting increased capital inflow. As CMF strengthened, the price could quickly reclaim VWAP and continue to rise. Notably, the price accelerated more than before when CMF ran above the zero line.
This history is significant, as for new tokens, breaking VWAP often occurs regularly in the early stages of coin distribution. What truly determines the outcome is not just the VWAP itself, but whether the flow of funds will support a recovery like before.
To put it simply, short-term investors are reducing their roles (possibly gradually taking profits), but large players have not sold out. As long as the CMF value remains positive and the whale group continues to buy on dips, the current weakness appears more like accumulation of strength rather than a complete trend shift.
Therefore, large capital remains a significant variable before entering January 2026.
Derivative instruments with NIGHT price movements set the risk zone for January 2026.
As the flow of funds begins to slow down, derivative strategies will become increasingly important before January.
The liquidity data for the next 7 days indicates that the market still tends to hold more buy-side positions, with Binance having a long liquidity position of around 3.6 million USD compared to a short position of about 2.9 million USD. Although this gap has narrowed after the price correction, the long group still holds an advantage.
This situation creates an extremely fragile scenario.
If the price of NIGHT continues to weaken while still below VWAP, all long positions will become fragile, and if the price drops to 0.08 USD, it may trigger forced liquidations that accelerate the downward correction. This scenario aligns with a weakening OBV and a stagnant CMF.
The important price level in the 12-hour frame clearly outlines the direction for January as follows.
0.101 USD is the first level that NIGHT must return to maintain. If the price breaks above this level firmly, it will help alleviate short-term pressure.
0.120 USD is an important confirmation level. If it closes above this level for the day, it will send NIGHT back into a new price discovery phase and erase the weakness that has occurred.
0.071 USD remains the most significant support level. If it drops below, it may open the door to a deeper correction down to 0.057 USD and 0.040 USD.
For January 2026, the path is relatively clear. If the whale group continues to accumulate coins, CMF recovers, and the price can recover VWAP, NIGHT will stabilize and may expand again. However, if capital support disappears while leverage remains heavily long, the market may be at risk of being reset by liquidations before a sustainable trend can emerge again.
