Bitcoin has decreased by 22.54% this quarter, marking the heaviest quarterly drop since 2018. With less than 10 days left before the end of the year, it now seems unlikely that Bitcoin will reach the bullish price target that many analysts have predicted.
Market experts are reassessing short-term expectations while pointing out how Bitcoin might finish the year and what 2026 might bring for this asset.
Experts highlight Bitcoin's important support level as the market heads toward the end of the year.
After peaking in October, Bitcoin faced headwinds in the market, with this asset closing the last two months in negative territory, according to data from Coinglass.
It fell 3.69% in October, followed by a drop of 17.67% in November, and so far this month, Bitcoin has fallen another 2.31%.
This cryptocurrency struggles to maintain a price above USD 90,000 securely and is currently trading below early-year prices. Meanwhile, weakened demand, slowing inflows of spot ETFs, and sales from smart money all increase downside risks for Bitcoin.
Selling pressure continues in recent sessions, with Bitcoin dropping another 1.8% in the past 24 hours. As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at USD 87,183.
Ray Youssef, CEO of NoOnes, told BeInCrypto that Bitcoin remains "in a limited range-bound movement under constant pressure," as the complex macroeconomic environment makes it difficult for Bitcoin to stand above USD 90,000, while liquidity is tight and risk appetite declines.
He also added that the bullish side has defended the support at USD 85,000 but has still been unable to overcome the massive selling pressure from earlier this year around USD 93,000.
Options market data reflects a battle among market participants, with put options clustered around USD 85,000 while call options are between USD 100,000 – USD 120,000.
According to Youssef, the upcoming expiration of options, additional information about the U.S. government shutdown, and a USD 6.8 billion liquidity injection from the Fed may trigger short-term volatility, but the market direction remains uncertain.
Unless Bitcoin can decisively break above the resistance at USD93,000 or lose the structural support at USD85,000, it is highly likely that BTC will continue to move within a range and experience ongoing volatility until the end of this year.
This executive explained that although the price has dropped more than 30% from the October peak, the proportion of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF holdings has not decreased by more than 5%, indicating that most institutional asset allocators still hold their positions despite the market correction.
He also revealed that the pressure to sell primarily comes from retail investors, especially those using leverage and short-term investors. Youssef pointed out that USD85,000 is an important support level to watch as the end of 2025 approaches.
If the price breaks below this zone, there is a chance of a deeper correction towards the USD73,000 area, which is a zone of buying demand.
The breakdown of this support level may cause institutional asset allocators to reconsider their decisions, as the price approaches a cost of around USD80,000 and must reclaim the USD94,000 level for the market to regain an upward trend and move towards previous highs, according to Youssef.
The trend of Bitcoin in 2026
Meanwhile, Farzam Ehsani, CEO of VALR, stated that the end of this year has become the most challenging time for crypto in recent years, as he pointed to weaknesses in the season, ongoing overbought conditions, and the shifting interest of investors back to conservative assets, particularly U.S. government bonds.
Ehsani added that liquidity in the market remains constrained, and at the same time, institutional players have chosen to wait and see, prioritizing capital preservation.
Additionally, Ehsani noted that this round of corrections reflects the market's fragility and there is always a risk of panic selling. In his view, there are only two logical conclusions that can be drawn.
Firstly, funds, banks, or even government agencies may be preparing to buy in large quantities.
In this case, the decline in exchange rates may be due to artificial factors and is likely to rebound again after a short-term correction.
On the other hand, the market may enter a state of oversupply, with the depreciating dollar due to rising U.S. government debt putting pressure on demand for crypto, which is a high-risk asset.
This trend is further exacerbated by the policies of the U.S. Federal Reserve, and in this case, the crypto market may take more than a year to recover, he said.
This executive also predicted that Bitcoin could reach a new historical peak as early as the first half of 2026, with prices potentially returning to the range of USD100,000 to USD120,000 by the second quarter.
The historical price peak may occur again as early as the first half of 2026, with prices expected to return to the range of USD100,000–120,000 in the second quarter. Historically, the first few months of the year tend to show little movement as most traders choose to wait and see the direction, while the market continues to seek growth drivers and new opportunities, he said.
The CEO of VALR emphasized that the key determining factors next year will depend on the level of acceptance by institutions, regulatory policies in the United States and globally, as well as the macroeconomic conditions of the largest economies in the world.
