The price of Cardano remains under pressure in the higher time frames and has decreased by about 12% compared to the previous month. However, beneath that weak surface, another story is unfolding as momentum begins to stabilize, selling pressure starts to ease, and one of the largest Cardano whale groups has begun to accumulate coins seriously.
This change did not happen by chance and is directly aligned with bullish divergence price signals, which is a structure that has previously led to a strong upward adjustment of ADA.
The bullish RSI signal indicates a trend reversal.
The first signal of this pattern appeared on the daily chart.
Between November 21 and December 18, the price of Cardano made new lows, but at the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) made higher lows. This RSI is used to measure momentum. When the price weakens but the RSI improves, it indicates that sellers are losing strength, even though prices are still declining. This is considered a classic bullish RSI divergence that is often associated with trend reversals rather than just temporary bounces.
A similar structure has occurred before in this cycle as well, between late November and early December. After this divergence occurred, Cardano rose nearly 30% within just eight days.
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RSI does not work in isolation. What is important now is whether the behavior on the blockchain will confirm that sellers are indeed retreating.
Whales start moving when coin activity decreases.
Data on the blockchain clearly confirms this.
Wallets holding 100 million to 1 billion ADA, which are the second largest group of Cardano whales, have increased their individual holdings since December 20. Each balance moved from 3.74 billion ADA to 3.84 billion ADA, or an increase of about 100 million ADA, which at current prices is valued at around USD 36 million, occurring during a period of weak price movement.
These purchases correspond to changes in the Spent Coins Age Band indicator, as this indicator tracks the volume of coins that have been moved, often reflecting selling activity. On December 16, the number of coins moved peaked, and various whales gradually sold off. But when the number of sold coins decreased, whale accumulation returned.
The pattern remains consistently aligned.
When coin activity increases (which could be selling pressure), the whale group retreats, but when selling starts to subside, the whale group comes back to accumulate.
This behavior shows that large holders are responding to weakening selling pressure and are not chasing buying pressure. This also reinforces the bullish divergence signal of the RSI, indicating that the weakening of selling pressure is being supported by large whale groups.
The price level of Cardano is crucial in determining the outcome
Even though momentum has improved and whale accumulation has occurred, price confirmation remains important.
Therefore, if Cardano wants to move forward beyond the reversal efforts, it must reclaim the key resistance level. The first significant strength signal will occur above 0.44 USD, but a true confirmation will be close to 0.47 USD. If this zone can be clearly breached, it would align with the upward adjustment after the previous divergence and open the opportunity for 0.50 USD, which is expected to be a significant psychological level.
If the momentum continues and whales keep accumulating, 0.50–0.55 USD can be reached under favorable market conditions.
However, the downside risk remains clear. If ADA falls below 0.34 USD, the concept of a reversal will weaken significantly. If the price drops below that, it indicates that selling pressure is returning. Historically, whales have also been known to start selling around that time.
