Core Idea: UNI's open interest plummeted by 11.39% along with long liquidation of 99%, thoroughly cleaning out leverage. The 1-hour RSI is at 23.5, deeply oversold, but the bearish momentum MACD is strong at -0.034. Although the fundamentals of DeFi leaders are robust and limit long-term declines, the short-term collapse of confidence combined with the declining BTC environment supports further bottom-seeking. Shorting with 3-5x leverage at the $5.75-5.80 rebound resistance level, with a target of $5.44-5.20 and a stop loss at $5.88. A technical breakdown is expected within 24 hours, with a potential drop of 4-9%.
Strategy Setup: Direction: Short | Leverage: 3-5 times (risk control, defensive shorting) | Entry Strategy: Wait for a technical rebound to the resistance level of $5.75-5.80 (near the lower Bollinger Band on the 1-hour chart / EMA12 on the 4-hour chart) before shorting, or directly place a short order at the current price of $5.68 to bet on a breakdown without a rebound | Stop-loss level: $5.88 (above the 1-hour EMA12, allowing for a 3.5% stop-loss space) | Primary target: $5.44 (liquidation support / key technical level, potential drop of 4.2%) | Extended target: $5.20 (psychological round number, potential drop of 8.5%) | Risk-reward ratio of 1.2, holding period of 12-24 hours (short-term speculation, not recommended to exceed 24 hours), closely monitor BTC trends, and take profit immediately if BTC rebounds.
Core Logic for Shorting: The current price of UNI is $5.68. Although a defensive long position was mentioned in previous plans, the latest data shows the situation has reversed. The position volume has plummeted by -11.39% to $379M in 24 hours, indicating severe deleveraging, coupled with $4.06M in 24-hour liquidations where long liquidations of $4.03M constitute 99%, nearly all chasing positions have been forcibly liquidated. After such extreme long-clearing, the market structure has turned bearish dominant, making it suitable for reverse short speculation for further declines.
Technical Short Signal: The 1-hour RSI has fallen to 23.5, indicating deep oversold conditions, with the price at $5.68 hitting the lower Bollinger Band below $5.73. The MACD histogram at -0.034 shows strong bearish momentum. Although oversold conditions theoretically may rebound, in the current market environment, oversold can become more oversold. The price is comprehensively below EMA12 at $5.88, EMA26 (undisclosed but should be higher), and SMA50 at $6.08, forming a perfect bearish arrangement. The 4-hour RSI at 42.0 is neutral to weak, with the price close to the lower Bollinger Band at $5.76, but EMA12 at $5.98 above forms resistance. The daily RSI at 48.9 is neutral; although the price is above the middle band at $5.54, the MACD histogram at +0.108 may form a top divergence—new lows in price but the MACD not synchronizing, indicating weak rebound potential.
Liquidation Structure and Short Target: The liquidation heatmap shows accumulation of $2.9M long liquidation pressure in the range of $5.42-5.65. Although 99% has been washed out, residual long stop-losses may still trigger further declines. The key support level is $5.44 (critical level on the 4-hour/daily charts, strong support shown in on-chain data); once broken, a new round of long stop-losses may drive the price quickly down to the $5.30-5.20 area. The upper resistance level of $5.77 has undisclosed short liquidation pressure, but inferred from the funding rate of +0.0044% (slightly positive), short positions appear relatively light with limited rebound space.
Fundamentals and Market Environment: UNI, as the leader in DeFi, has a TVL of $4.66B and a 7-day growth of +1.6%, demonstrating ecological resilience. Daily fees of $1.22M prove stable trading activity, which limits long-term downside potential. However, in the short term, the plummeting position volume of -11.39% shows a collapse of confidence. The net inflow data from exchanges (December 22 +414k, December 20 +1.56M) suggests institutional buying, but in a weak market, this inflow may be for selling rather than building positions. The key risk is if BTC stabilizes and rebounds, UNI, as a DeFi blue-chip, may rise first; therefore, short positions should be set with tight stop-losses.
