Cardano (ADA) prices are under pressure on the long-term charts, still down about 12% compared to the previous month. However, beneath the visible weakness, another trend is taking shape. Momentum is stabilizing, and selling pressure is gradually easing. Additionally, one of the Cardano whale groups has started a large-scale buying spree.
This change is not a coincidence. It closely aligns with a strong divergence. This structure has appeared in the past before ADA prices surged.
RSI bullish divergence... a trend reversal signal?
The first signal is confirmed on the daily chart.
From November 21 to December 18, the price of Cardano formed a lower low. However, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) recorded a higher low. The RSI is an indicator that measures momentum. When the price is falling but the RSI is rising, it indicates that selling pressure is weakening. This is a typical bullish RSI divergence, which often appears when a trend reversal is anticipated rather than a temporary bounce.
A similar structure appeared at the end of November to early December in this cycle. After this divergence was maintained, Cardano rose about 30% in 8 days.
If you would like to receive more insights like this on tokens, please subscribe to Editor Harsh Notariya's Daily Crypto Newsletter here.
RSI alone is not enough. What matters now is to confirm whether on-chain data actually shows that sellers are retreating.
Whales enter as coin trading decreases
On-chain data provides strong confidence.
Wallets holding 100 million to 1 billion ADA, the second-largest group of whales in Cardano, increased their holdings starting from December 20. Their balance increased by about 100 million ADA from 3.74 billion ADA to 3.84 billion ADA. At current prices, this amounts to approximately $36 million, which was bought during a period of bearish price movement.
This buying pressure is directly related to changes in the Spent Coins Age Band indicator. This indicator tracks the number of coins being moved, which is directly linked to selling activity. On December 16, this value peaked, and whales distributed their holdings. After the value declined, whale accumulation resumed.
This pattern is consistently repeating.
When the amount of coin transfers increases (when selling pressure is high), whales remain on the sidelines. When selling pressure weakens, whales start accumulating.
This behavior suggests that large holders are responding not to chase price increases but rather when selling pressure decreases. This further strengthens the bullish RSI divergence signal and indicates that whales are supporting the weakened selling pressure.
Breaking above $0.47 is important.
There is momentum recovery and whale accumulation, but price confirmation is still needed.
For Cardano to enter a true reversal phase, it needs to reclaim the key resistance zone. The first significant bullish signal emerges above $0.44, while the true confirmation zone is around $0.47. If this area is definitively broken, a flow similar to the rally following past divergences may occur, and the $0.50 range may also open up. This range is psychologically significant as well.
If momentum is maintained and whale accumulation continues, the $0.50 to $0.55 range becomes feasible under favorable market conditions.
The risk of decline is clearly still present. If ADA cannot hold above $0.34, the reversal scenario weakens significantly. A break below this range indicates a resumption of selling pressure. Historically, there is a possibility that whales will begin selling at this point.
