Seeing CZ and Tom Lee discussing the super cycle reminded me of Zhu Su, the founder of Three Arrows Capital, in 2021.

Zhu Su of Three Arrows Capital, during the 2021 bull market, was most known for his narrative on the super cycle rather than for profits.

The so-called super cycle means: cryptocurrency is no longer following traditional bull and bear markets. In his view, institutions will continue to enter, mainstream adoption will accelerate, and with the global long-term monetary easing, the market will only go up, with no major bear markets lasting for years, and no deep corrections happening every four years.

Under this logic, his judgment was extremely aggressive: Bitcoin is not just rising, but entering an "up only" state, with extreme cases even comparing it to gold, seeing $2.5 million; on the Ethereum side, if EIP-1559 and PoS progress smoothly, $25,000 is just the starting price. This narrative was heavily embraced in 2021, and it was precisely because of this narrative that 3AC's managed scale once surged to the tens of billions level.

However, the market later provided a very realistic answer. In 2022, with the collapse of LUNA combined with a comprehensive deleveraging, liquidity reversed instantly, and Three Arrows was directly buried at the turning point of the cycle, ultimately going bankrupt, leaving a hole of billions of dollars. The super cycle did not arrive; instead, what came was a textbook-level liquidation.

Zhu Su later admitted that the price judgment of the super cycle was wrong, but he still believes that cryptocurrency will develop in the long term. However, from the results, this matter once again verified a point: grand narratives can inflate bubbles, but they cannot change cycles; ignoring corrections and risks while being long-term bullish often leads to failure in short-term liquidity.

The super cycle sounds beautiful, but the market will never only rise without falling.