Despite strong accumulation of Bitcoin ETFs and DAs this year, Bitcoin's price has not attracted the same strong participation from private investors as in previous cycles.
Well-known market analysts like Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, and experienced trader Peter Brandt have made their latest Bitcoin statements. Their views highlight Bitcoin's outlook in the short, medium, and long term.
Short-term outlook
In the short term, Bitcoin may still face difficulties in achieving an increase. This weakness is reflected in declining reserves of stablecoins.
Data from CryptoQuant shows that stablecoin reserves on the largest exchanges have dropped significantly. Capital outflows reached nearly $1.9 billion in just 30 days.
Binance, the market's leading liquidity venue, often reflects investors' willingness to buy through the balance of stablecoins. However, data shows that ERC-20 stablecoin reserves have fallen significantly on Binance and other centralized exchanges. This trend suggests that private investors are leaving the market.
"This movement indicates a clear lack of investment interest for immediate market participation. Instead of keeping their stablecoins on exchanges while waiting for opportunities, some investors have chosen to withdraw them," commented analyst Darkfost.
As a result, Bitcoin lacks sufficient buying pressure in the short term, which limits its upside potential.
Medium-term outlook
In the medium term, Ki Young Ju, founder of CryptoQuant, pointed out that the supply of capital to Bitcoin on the blockchain is gradually weakening.
He explained that after about 2.5 years of continuous growth, the "realized cap" has stagnated over the past month. This measurement indicates total realized capitalization based on the last purchase price for each Bitcoin.
Data also shows that the PnL Index signal, which measures profit and loss based on the average cost price for all wallets, has moved sideways since early 2025. The indicator has begun to trend downward towards the year-end, signaling increasing losses.
"An increase in market sentiment may take a few months," predicted Ki Young Ju.
Long-term outlook
In the long term, most analysts remain optimistic. Peter Brandt, a well-known trader with experience since 1975, maintains a bullish stance.
In a recent post on X, Brandt stated that Bitcoin has experienced five logarithmic parabolic increases over the last 15 years. Downtrends of at least 80% followed each time. He believed that the current cycle is not yet over.
When asked about the timing of a possible bottom, Brandt did not provide a specific answer. However, he estimated that the next peak in the bull market could occur in September 2029.
His thesis is based on historical results. Recent market cycles tend to last longer and provide smaller percentage gains than before.
Overall, analysts suggest that Bitcoin may need several months for an upswing. A new peak is not expected anytime soon.
