Institutional capital flows into Bitcoin ETF and Ethereum ETF are clearly weakening as data shows the net capital flow has remained negative for more than 6 weeks, leading to a tightening of liquidity across the crypto market.
This reversal reflects a risk-off sentiment before the end of the year, as capital allocators are more cautious and the summer rally based on ETFs is gradually being unwound.
MAIN CONTENT
The 30-day moving average of the net capital flow of Bitcoin ETF and Ethereum ETF has remained negative since the beginning of November and has not recovered.
Bitcoin ETF recorded a net outflow of $142.19 million today; total net assets decreased to $114.99 billion.
Ethereum ETF had inflow of $84.59 million today, but the 30-day trend remains negative; AUM is still $18.20 billion.
Cash flow for BTC and ETH ETFs has turned negative and prolonged
Data shows that the net cash flow (30-day SMA) of Bitcoin ETF and Ethereum ETF turned negative since early November and has not returned to positive territory.
According to Glassnode's chart, the 30-day average of net flows for both ETF groups simultaneously 'dropped' below 0 in early November. The failure to recover for several weeks indicates that demand from large capital allocators is sustainably decreasing, not just short-term noise.
For most of 2025, ETF activity was a key liquidity source, especially during the July–September period when strong inflows supported Bitcoin prices above $110,000 and Ethereum above $4,500. However, since November, this upward trend has reversed quickly, with many cash flow sessions showing continuous 'red bars', characteristic of prolonged outflow.
Bitcoin ETF is under significant capital withdrawal pressure
Bitcoin ETF recorded a net outflow of $142.19 million today, indicating that the pressure for capital withdrawal is still dominant in the short term.
Daily tracking data from SoSoValue indicates that Bitcoin ETF products in the U.S. had a net outflow of $142.19 million today. This extends the series of withdrawals that have repeated in November and December, reinforcing the 'de-risk' picture of institutional cash flow.
Total net assets of Bitcoin ETF have decreased to $114.99 billion, significantly lower than the summer peak. This trend correlates with the spot price, as Bitcoin is around $88,351 and has not reclaimed the $90,000 mark despite multiple attempts.
The most significant inflow occurred in mid-October, but since then, outflow has overshadowed sporadic green sessions. This often reduces the 'lifting force' in recovery sessions, as ETFs are a crucial supply absorption channel in the 2025 cycle.
Ethereum ETF has short-term inflow but the overall trend remains weak
Although Ethereum ETF had an inflow of $84.59 million today, the 30-day SMA trend remains negative, indicating that buying pressure is not sufficient for a sustainable reversal.
Ethereum ETF recorded a net inflow of $84.59 million today, but this single data point is set against a broader context of several weeks of outflow. When the 30-day SMA remains 'anchored' below 0, sporadic inflow sessions often only reflect tactical trading rather than a marked return of institutional investors.
The total AUM of Ethereum ETF is currently around $18.20 billion, down from the highs set during strong inflow periods in August. At the same time, ETH is trading around $2,976 and continues to trend downward as ETF demand weakens and liquidity thins out.
Tightening liquidity and reduced year-end risk are dominating the market
On-chain indicators and ETFs are in agreement that risk appetite is declining, capital allocators are reducing exposure, and the summer inflow cycle has been almost entirely 'unwound'.
Capital allocators have reduced their exposure.
Risk appetite remains weak.
The strong inflow cycle of summer has been completely 'unwound'.
The 'cooling off' momentum is often associated with the year-end portfolio rebalancing of funds, less favorable macro liquidity conditions, and the enthusiasm effect after the ETF approval phase is no longer strong enough to sustain inflow as before.
The current environment resembles historical periods when institutional investors temporarily stepped back, waiting for stable volatility before repositioning. In the context of ETFs playing a leading liquidity channel for crypto in 2025, the prolonged absence of positive cash flow could easily lead the market towards stagnation or slight declines.
Direct implications for current BTC and ETH prices
When prolonged outflow and decreasing AUM occur, the upward momentum of BTC and ETH is limited and may stagnate until ETF cash flow improves.
Both Bitcoin and Ethereum remain sensitive to ETF cash flow as this is a mechanism that transforms institutional demand into immediate buying power. When outflow persists and AUM contracts in both product groups, the likelihood of a sustainable upward movement often decreases, unless there are strong supporting variables from macro or policy.
Bullish momentum continues to be constrained.
Prices may stagnate until demand returns.
Positive catalysts in the future (macro or regulatory) could trigger a return of inflows.
Current data leans more towards a 'cooling off' scenario rather than a structural rejection. However, if the ETF remains a crucial liquidity driver, returning to positive cash flow will be an important condition for forming a stronger recovery phase, especially as we enter early 2026.
_toggle conclusions based on data
The current ETF outflow resembles temporary risk-reducing behavior from institutions rather than abandoning the market, but for BTC and ETH to regain strong upward trends, the market likely needs a sustainable series of positive inflows to return.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why has the cash flow of Bitcoin ETF and Ethereum ETF turned negative for several weeks?
Data shows that capital allocators are more cautious before the end of the year, combining portfolio rebalancing and unfavorable liquidity conditions, causing outflow to overshadow inflow for an extended period.
What does a net outflow of $142.19 million from Bitcoin ETF mean?
It indicates that the pressure for capital withdrawal still exists in the short term and could weaken price support, especially when outflow sessions follow one another and AUM decreases.
Is the $84.59 million inflow in Ethereum ETF enough to reverse the trend?
Not enough, as the 30-day SMA of ETH ETF cash flow remains negative. A few individual inflow sessions often cannot confirm a reversal without a sustainable series of positive cash flows.
How does ETF cash flow affect BTC and ETH prices?
ETFs are a channel for creating large-scale demand, so inflow often supports prices, while prolonged outflow usually causes prices to stagnate or fall due to weakened liquidity and reduced buying pressure.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/to-chuc-lien-tuc-rut-von-etf-bitcoin-ethereum/
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