This year, crypto looked less like an experiment and more like a mature market, shaped by institutional consolidation, faster regulation, and increasing macroeconomic pressures.
As the industry moves toward 2026, its direction will depend on which assets withstand institutional scrutiny, and how recession risks, shifts in monetary policy, and increased use of stablecoins change crypto's place in the dollar-dominated financial world.
Institutional capital leads to consolidation in crypto
Throughout 2025, BeInCrypto has spoken to experienced investors and leading economists to assess how the crypto industry is evolving and what lies ahead for a sector marked by uncertainty.
Shark Tank investor Kevin O’Leary starts from a simple principle: As institutional capital comes in, crypto moves away from the endless hunt for tokens and toward a narrower range of assets that can justify long-term allocation.
He pointed to his own experience as a case in point. O’Leary started out as a skeptic of crypto, but as regulations became clearer, he chose to gain exposure.
At first, that meant buying broadly. His portfolio grew to 27 tokens. He later concluded that approach was excessive. Today, he owns just three cryptocurrencies, which he believes is more than enough for his needs.
“If you statistically look at the volatility of just Bitcoin, Ethereum and a stablecoin for liquidity… That’s all I need to own,” O’Leary told BeInCrypto in a podcast episode.
For O’Leary, each asset has a specific function. He describes Bitcoin as an inflation hedge, often comparing it to digital gold characterized by scarcity and decentralization.
Ethereum, on the other hand, does not function as a currency, but as the core of a new financial infrastructure, with long-term growth tied to the technology. Stablecoins are held for flexibility and not for potential growth.
This framework shapes his outlook for 2026. As regulation evolves and institutional participation increases, O’Leary expects capital to concentrate around Bitcoin and Ethereum as the market’s core assets. Other tokens will struggle to justify long-term allocation and will largely compete on the fringes.
In such an environment, crypto investments will move away from speculation and toward disciplined portfolio building, closer to how traditional asset classes are handled.
But even as investors narrow their holdings, the question of who ultimately controls the crypto monetary system is becoming increasingly complex.
Dollar control moves onchain
While investors like O’Leary focus on narrowing the risk, Greek economist and former finance minister Yanis Varoufakis points to a different development.
In a BeInCrypto podcast episode, he argued that control over crypto's monetary infrastructure is tightening, especially as stablecoins come under increased government and private control.
Varoufakis highlighted recent US policy as a turning point. By advancing legislation like the GENIUS Act, Washington is adopting a stablecoin-based extension of the dollar. Stablecoins are no longer challenging the existing financial system, but are now being used to reinforce it.
He contrasted this approach with the so-called Mar-a-Lago Accord, which seeks to weaken the dollar’s exchange rate while maintaining its dominance in global payments. This contradiction is at the heart of Varoufakis’ concern.
Varoufakis warned that this model outsources monetary policy power to private issuers, leading to increased financial concentration and reduced public accountability. He argued that the risks extend beyond the United States as dollar-backed stablecoins spread to foreign economies.
“Right now, there are Malaysian, Indonesian and European companies using Tether… and that’s a big problem. Suddenly, these countries end up with central banks that no longer control the money supply. This weakens their ability to conduct monetary policy, which creates instability,” Varoufakis said in a BeInCrypto podcast episode.
With his eyes set on 2026, he describes stablecoins as a systemic disruption.
A major collapse could trigger a cross-border financial shock, exposing crypto's deepest vulnerability, not volatility, but its increasing entanglement with old power structures.
These risks remain largely theoretical as long as the market is calm. The real test comes when growth stalls, liquidity tightens, and markets come under pressure.
Former economic advisor to Ronald Reagan, Steve Hanke, warned that such a stress test is approaching.
Economic downturn stresses markets
In an episode of BeInCrypto's podcast episode, the Johns Hopkins professor of applied economics says that the US economy is heading for recession, driven not by inflation, but by political uncertainty and weak money supply growth.
Hanke pointed to inconsistent customs policy and growing budget deficits as key factors limiting investment and confidence.
“When you have that, investors who are considering investing in, for example, a new factory will sit on the fence and say: ‘We will wait and see the situation before we make any decision.’ Then they stop investing,” says Hanke.
As economic conditions worsen, Hanke expects the Federal Reserve to continue to respond with looser monetary policy.
He did not address crypto directly, but his macroeconomic view outlines the conditions under which crypto will be tested.
Tight liquidity, followed by sudden relief, has historically exposed weaknesses in financial markets, especially in systems that rely on leverage or fragile trust.
For crypto, the implications are structural rather than speculative.
In an environment marked by recessionary risks and political volatility, stress reveals what growth hides. What lasts is not what grows fastest, but what is built to withstand adversity.
