$POLYX 【Rate Master】 detected an abnormal POLYX contract rate: -1.43%, the following is the analysis:
Direction: Long Confidence: Medium
Core Logic: Under extreme negative rate (-1.43%), shorts have been liquidated multiple times (totaling over 50,000 USD in short liquidations), while the price has been oscillating in the range of 0.053~0.055, indicating strong support from the spot buying, with shorts paying to subsidize longs, providing ample fuel for short squeezes.
1. Data Dashboard
- Rate Interpretation: An extreme negative rate of -1.43% means that shorts pay 1.43% to longs every 4 hours, causing continuous psychological pressure and capital bleed for short holders, encouraging them to close their positions or get liquidated, while subsidizing longs to hold on.
- OI Interpretation: Open interest of 10.51 million, combined with high trading volume (92.69 million/24h) and number of transactions, shows active capital, but the long-short ratio is nearly balanced (0.9993), indicating that the market is leaning towards oscillating accumulation rather than unilateral movement.
- Liquidation Interpretation: Shorts are in pain (24h short liquidation of 36,400, with recent large short liquidations such as 42,566 and 6,072), while longs are cleaning out short positions; long liquidations are relatively dispersed (92,100), with recent occurrences of 1,851 and 3,315 showing that longs are occasionally washed out but not dominating.
2. Risk Assessment
- Main Risk: Although the trading volume is high, it is primarily driven by bears, with insufficient spot volume, possibly indicating a leveraged game rather than real capital entering; the BTC market is weak (oscillating around 88k-90k), and if BTC breaks down, it may drag POLYX down accordingly.
- Black Swan Check: No project exits, exchange hacks, or major negative events; the Polymesh project is progressing normally with RWA-related upgrades.
3. Operational Suggestions
- Suggested Entry Zone: Near the current price (0.054~0.055 USD)
- First Take Profit Level: 0.060~0.062 (based on recent volatility of about 10-15%, expecting a short squeeze rebound)
- Stop Loss Level: 0.0525 (not exceeding entry price -3%, or breaking recent low of 0.0538 as key support)
(The chart shows the 15m liquidation chart)
