Gold prices are entering a phase of strong explosion as they continuously set new historical peaks, approaching the threshold of 4,500 USD/ounce. In the context of increasing global economic instability, the flow of money seeking safe-haven assets is becoming increasingly evident, and gold continues to affirm its position as the 'king of defensive assets.'

Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC) – often referred to as 'digital gold' – is trading quite sluggishly. This disparity raises questions among many investors: Where is Bitcoin in the race with gold, and what price does it need to reach to truly surpass this precious metal?

Market Capitalization Comparison: Bitcoin is only 5.6% of Gold

According to current market data:

  • Market capitalization of Bitcoin: approximately 1.74 trillion USD

  • Market capitalization of gold: approximately 31.1 trillion USD

This means that Bitcoin currently only accounts for about 5.6% of the total market capitalization of gold. The gap between the two asset classes remains significant, indicating that gold is still the dominant safe haven for global capital.

Based on the total supply of Bitcoin limited to 21 million BTC, calculations show:

👉 The price of Bitcoin needs to reach approximately 1,559,000 USD/BTC for its market cap to match and surpass gold.

Long-Term Performance: Bitcoin Still Outperforms

When looking at long-term performance, Bitcoin still shows significantly stronger growth compared to gold:

  • Last 5 years:

    • Bitcoin: +266.76%

    • Gold: +137.92%

  • Last 3 years:

    • Bitcoin: +418.7%

    • Gold: +155.42%

These numbers clearly reflect Bitcoin's characteristics: highly volatile but with significant growth potential, especially during liquidity expansion cycles.

Short-Term and Medium-Term: Gold is Dominating

However, in the short and medium term, the situation is heavily tilted towards gold:

  • Last 2 years:

    • Bitcoin: +98.32%

    • Gold: +118.75%

  • Last 1 year:

    • Bitcoin: -8.23%

    • Gold: +70.47%

  • Year-to-date (YTD):

    • Bitcoin: -6.67%

    • Gold: +70.86%

Clearly, in the context of geopolitical instability, prolonged inflation, and economic recession fears, capital is prioritizing stability over risk – which gold currently does better than Bitcoin.

Can Bitcoin Replace Gold?

Gold and Bitcoin are often compared, but they serve fundamentally different groups of needs:

  • Gold: a traditional defensive asset, stable, held by central banks and large institutions.

  • Bitcoin: a digital scarce asset, more speculative, but with superior long-term growth potential.

The scenario for Bitcoin to reach a price above 1.5 million USD/BTC to surpass gold is not a short-term scenario, but it is not impossible in the long term, especially if Bitcoin continues to be widely accepted as a global reserve asset.

Conclusion

The peak gold price reflects the defensive sentiment of the global market, while Bitcoin is in an accumulation phase waiting for a new cycle.
Currently, gold is ahead in stability, while Bitcoin is ahead in long-term potential.

The race between 'traditional gold' and 'digital gold' is still undecided – and that continues to create significant opportunities for investors who understand the nature of each asset class.