Is Solana really done for? Data has plummeted by 97%, but opportunities may lie in the most pessimistic places.
At this time last year, Solana (SOL) was seen as the 'bull market engine' by everyone, with monthly active traders exceeding 30 million and prices nearing $300, having increased over 35 times from the bottom. The entire crypto circle was discussing the legend of the 'Ethereum killer.' Who would have thought that just a year later, the plot would take a sharp turn.
I. Cliff-like decline: From peak to 'Ice Age'
Just entering the fourth quarter of 2025, a shocking data point has emerged: the overall activity of the Solana network has plummeted by 97% compared to last year's peak. Monthly active traders have decreased from over 30 million to less than 1 million. Meanwhile, the price of SOL has also significantly retreated from its high, at one point this year falling to the support level of $120, a drop of over 58% from its peak.
In the words of one analyst: 'Has the era of Solana already ended?'
Two, the engine stalls: success and failure are both due to meme.
The previous boom of Solana was largely due to meme coins, which were undoubtedly the number one contributor. They acted like a crazy engine of traffic and revenue, attracting massive users and transactions. Provided that the blockchain does not frequently crash, these 'joke coins' injected enormous vitality into the ecosystem.
However, high volatility is the Achilles' heel of meme coins. In 2025, the overall market is expected to cool down, with Bitcoin dropping over 30% within the year, while many meme coins in the Solana ecosystem have seen prices plummet over 90%. When the engine stalls, the entire network's activity and revenue are immediately revealed.
Data shows that Solana's annual revenue in 2025 is expected to be around $500 million, down from $2.5 billion in 2024, representing a fivefold decrease. In contrast, its long-time rival Ethereum is expected to exceed $1.4 billion in annual revenue, nearly three times that of Solana. Last year, Solana was catching up rapidly, but this year the gap has widened.
Three, institutions are still watching: the other side of the undercurrent.
But there is another side to the story. Even at the low point of network activity, Solana's technology continues to attract the attention of some traditional giants. For example, payment giant Visa has publicly stated it is considering using Solana for stablecoin settlements.
This suggests a key turning point: If Solana's future can gradually free itself from the reliance on high-risk meme coins and short-term speculation, and shift towards more stable real-world applications and institutional use cases, then its ecological resilience may truly improve. This is crucial for its future in closing the gap with Ethereum.
Four, what should investors do? Huge disparities in price predictions.
Market sentiment is extremely polarized. In terms of returns, SOL's performance in 2025 is expected to lag behind ETH by 56%, a stark contrast to last year's 24% lead.
Pessimistic analysts believe that the SOL price may drop to the range of $50-75 in the first half of 2026. However, there exists up to $1 billion in leveraged short positions in the market. It's like a tightly wound spring; any positive news could trigger a dramatic 'short squeeze' rally. Therefore, there are also views that SOL could rebound 15% in the short term, reaching $134-140.
What is your opinion?
1. In the short term, Solana has experienced the pain of 'de-bubbling', and its over-reliance on meme coins has been exposed in the bear market, with dismal data and prices.
2. In the long term, its technological foundation is still gaining institutional attention, and transforming into a 'utility' ecosystem is a matter of life and death.
3. From a speculative perspective, the market has a large number of shorts, with extreme volatility, presenting both opportunities and risks for short-term games.
So the question arises:
Do you think Solana is 'out of the game' or 'crouching is for jumping higher'? Will you choose to seek opportunities in despair, or decisively turn to other ecosystems?
Leave your insights in the comments! Is it time to buy the dip or wait and see? Let's discuss!
