MARKET UPDATE | FED EXPECTATIONS RESET
Hopes for a near-term Fed pivot are cooling quickly.
The probability of a January rate cut has fallen to 13.3%, down from 28.8%, pushing markets to adjust to a higher-for-longer rate outlook.
What this means
Liquidity is tightening rather than improving
Rate-sensitive assets are losing their previous support
Risk-taking turns selective instead of market-wide
This isn’t a crash signal — it suggests the era of easy liquidity rallies is on pause, and trading conditions are becoming more tactical and disciplined.
Key things to monitor
Upcoming inflation prints and labor market data
Shifts in Fed messaging or guidance
Rotation of capital within crypto, not just fresh inflows
Liquidity-driven plays are now under closer scrutiny.
Smart money adjusts positioning before the broader narrative catches up.
