12.24 Morning Crude Oil Analysis: Short-term Strength Continues, Bullish Outlook Unchanged for the Day, Medium-term Downward Trend Not Reversed

The crude oil market has recorded five consecutive days of gains, with trading activity being relatively subdued before the holiday. The tug-of-war between bulls and bears revolves around supply and demand — the pressure from the U.S. on Venezuelan crude oil exports has reinforced expectations of supply contraction, becoming the core driving force behind this round of rebound, while the weak fundamentals of global demand have temporarily eased the pressure.

Daily Cycle: Oil prices rebounded and reached the key level of 54.80 before stabilizing and consolidating. The candlestick pattern shows an alternating arrangement of bullish and bearish candles, and the moving average system maintains a bearish arrangement. The medium-term objective trend is clearly downward. According to the principle of alternating trends, the medium-term downward rhythm has not fundamentally changed, and the current rebound is a technical correction within the medium-term decline process.

Short-term Cycle: Oil prices continue to rise based on the moving average system and have refreshed the stage high. The short-term bullish trend structure is complete; technically, attention should be paid to the MACD indicator showing a top divergence above the zero axis, indicating a marginal decline in bullish momentum. However, the upward trend in the morning has not been damaged, and the short-term bullish logic for the day remains valid.

Trading Strategy (Precise Execution)

Entry: 58.00 Long Position Involvement

Stop Loss: 57.60 (Strict risk control to prevent short-term pullback risks)

Target: 59.50 (Precise target for short-term resistance)