$BTC / Bitcoin — Year-End Reality Check
Instead of talking about a Santa Rally, perhaps we should prepare for a true 'Grinch Rally'.
The price behavior data of Bitcoin over the last 4 years shows a highly probable repeating scenario:
👉 A strong sell-off occurs between 12/25 and the end of the year.$ETH
The period from 12/25 to 12/31 is almost a 'kill zone' for late long orders. As institutional liquidity thins out due to the holiday season, the market often shifts to a distribution phase, followed by a sharp flush before the year closes.$SOL
The history of the last 4 years:
•2021 (-10.11%): Strong rejection at the peak, the holiday turned into a major liquidation event.
•2022 (-1.87%): Slow decline, low volatility, completing the bear market bottom.
•2023 (-3.47%): Even distribution, ending precisely on 12/31.
•2024 (-8.32%): Strong reversal from around ~$100k, wiping out long breakout orders using leverage.
Currently, BTC is around ~$87k, and there are only ~48 hours left before entering this familiar risk framework.
If history continues to repeat, the probability leans heavily towards an additional drop of ~5–10% before the new year.
👉 This is not the time for FOMO, but a time for risk management and keeping a cool head.
