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$BTC has always been a cyclical beast 👀 2013: -87.06% 2017: -83.46% 2021: -78.57% 2025: people see one tiny bounce and immediately scream “TO THE MOON!” — then call me stupid for staying cautious. $ETH
Every cycle, I used to respond:
“Sure, maybe I’m dumb.”
But here’s the truth: When the market pumps, nobody sends me their profits. When it crashes, nobody apologizes.
So in 2025, my answer is simple:
Trade your conviction. If you win — you keep it. If you lose — you own it.
Execution: • Swing short from 97K • Partial profits already booked around 87.8K (2026 yearly open)
Technical read: $BTC The weekly candle is doing bulls no favors here. Price is struggling right at the 2026 yearly open (~87,800) — a level that matters more than most realize. If this week closes below that line, structure opens the door for a quick move into 84K, with 78K sitting as the next major liquidity pocket below. Momentum is still leaning downside and there’s no meaningful weekly reclaim yet.
As long as $BTC stays below the yearly open, rallies look corrective — not impulsive.
$Q pushed back into a prior resistance zone but failed to get acceptance. Momentum is fading quickly and the move up looks corrective, with sell pressure showing on every high. As long as this area caps price, continuation to the downside is favored.
$PLAY failed to build acceptance after the earlier drop and the bounce is getting sold again. Structure remains bearish, momentum stays weak, and this looks like distribution into liquidity rather than a real reversal. As long as price stays capped here, continuation lower is favored.
BCH — SHORT: moving exactly as mapped, structure still heavy and momentum intact. HYPE— LONG: holding support cleanly with buyers in control. HOLO— SHORT: rejection is holding, downside momentum remains in play.
All three trades are already in profit. This is a good spot to move SL back to entry on each position and let the setups continue to work risk-free.
$HOLO pushed back into a prior resistance zone and stalled quickly. Upside follow-through is weak and sell pressure is showing up on the highs, suggesting this move up is corrective rather than continuation. While this area caps price, downside continuation remains favored.
$KITE — bounce into resistance is getting sold, no acceptance higher.
Short $KITE ( Max 10X ) Entry: 0.15– 0.157 SL: 0.167 TP1: 0.142 TP2: 0.135 TP3: 0.126
KITE is trading back into a prior supply zone with momentum clearly slowing. The push up looks corrective, sell pressure shows up on every high, and structure still favors continuation to the downside while this area caps price.
HYPE is holding above the prior breakout area with dips being absorbed quickly. Structure remains bullish and momentum stays strong, suggesting this consolidation is a continuation phase rather than distribution.
PLAY is trading back into a prior resistance zone with momentum fading fast. Buyers can’t hold above this area and the move up looks corrective rather than a real reversal. As long as this zone caps price, downside continuation is favored.
PLAY is trading back into a prior resistance zone with momentum fading fast. Buyers can’t hold above this area and the move up looks corrective rather than a real reversal. As long as this zone caps price, downside continuation is favored.
$AXS — push up is getting sold, no acceptance above this area.
Short $AXS ( max x10 ) Entry: 2.10 – 2.25 SL: 2.35 TP1: 2.02 TP2: 1.90 TP3: 1.78
AXS is trading back into a prior supply zone with momentum clearly slowing. Buyers are struggling to hold higher levels and this bounce looks corrective rather than a real trend shift. While this area caps price, downside continuation remains favored.
We’re not fully at TP yet, but it’s close enough for me.
Momentum is clearly fading, selling pressure is thinning out, and this is the exact zone where price likes to react. No reason to squeeze the last few ticks and risk giving profits back.
My action: – I’m closing the short early here – If you’re still in, you can take profits now or move your stop to a profitable level
This is risk management, not fear. Capital protection always comes first.
Mike On The Move
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Bearish
$PIPPIN — rolling profits from the morning trade and pressing the short again into this bounce.
Price is bouncing back into prior supply and getting sold with no real acceptance higher. Momentum remains bearish and this push up looks corrective rather than a reversal. While this zone caps price, downside continuation stays favored.
Looking at $ZEC , my base case remains the ~$300 zone, and it hasn’t changed. The micro structure is rolling over inside a larger macro descending framework, and the cleanest draw is where the lower bound of the short-term channel converges with the lower rail of the macro structure. That area lines up perfectly with prior acceptance and unresolved liquidity, which makes it the most logical magnet.
Until price can reclaim higher-timeframe resistance with real momentum, a rotation into that confluence is still the path of least resistance. The open question is timing — does this align with $BTC sliding into the mid-70s, or does $ZEC need to press closer to $250 to stay in sync with Bitcoin’s move? That part will be revealed by price.
For clarity: the 70–80K BTC scenario is only on the table in the event of a broader market breakdown, where Bitcoin starts trending toward the 30K region. Until then, it’s just a contingency — not the primary case.
Price is right at the target zone and the move has delivered clean. I’ve closed 50% of the position to lock in profits, and I’m holding the rest for TP2–TP3.
Well played — congrats to everyone who stayed disciplined and followed the plan.
Mike On The Move
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Bearish
$ZEC — push into supply got rejected fast, no acceptance above this zone.
Price tapped back into a heavy supply area and sellers stepped in immediately. Upside follow-through is missing and momentum is rolling over, suggesting this move up is corrective rather than continuation. As long as this zone caps price, downside continuation remains favored.
LTC pushed back into a prior supply zone and failed to get acceptance higher. Momentum is rolling over and this move up looks corrective, with sellers stepping in on the highs. As long as this area caps price, downside continuation is favored.
SOMI is holding above the prior demand with dips getting absorbed. Structure remains intact and momentum is rebuilding, suggesting this pullback is corrective rather than distribution.