VanEck Report: Bitcoin Hashrate Plummets, Miner Pressure or Prelude to 2026 Rebound
According to VanEck's latest Bitcoin ChainCheck report, the performance of Bitcoin has continued to worsen by the end of 2025, with network hashrate declining approximately 4% over the past 30 days, marking the worst fourth quarter for Bitcoin since 2018. However, VanEck believes that this rare situation is not a signal of sustained weakness, but often indicates stronger long-term returns.
Bitcoin price has continued to drop about 9% in December to around $87,000, with volatility rising above 45%, reaching a new high since April, while market speculative demand has sharply cooled. The annualized financing rate for perpetual futures has dropped to about 5%, well below the average level, reflecting a decrease in leverage in the derivatives market.
The pressure on the miner side has become the current core trend, with the 30-day moving average of Bitcoin network hashrate recording the largest decline since April 2024, significantly compressing the profitability space for mining machines.
At the same time, the ETF market shows a clear trend of fund inflow differentiation. Bitcoin ETP holdings have decreased by 120 basis points, while companies have increased their holdings of approximately 42,000 Bitcoins against the trend, marking the largest increase since July. Although strategic funds have completed their increases through equity issuance, other funds have paused related operations.
Despite Bitcoin's short-term weakness, VanEck remains optimistic about its long-term rise. On-chain data shows that investors holding for 1-5 years are reducing their positions, while seasoned long-term holders maintain their positions; this "diamond hand divergence" indicates short-term speculators are exiting, while long-term capital firmly holds.
Historically, the drop in Bitcoin's hashrate benefits long-term investors. Analysis indicates that after the 90-day hashrate growth rate turns negative, the probability of an increase in the following 180 days is 77%, with an average return of about 72%, making entry at this time capable of boosting expected returns over 180 days to 2400 basis points.
Overall, although the current market is suppressed by the weak on-chain activity and miner pressure, the improvement in liquidity combined with the decrease in leverage suggests that the market is brewing a healthier new cycle. The year 2026 is also seen as a key turning point, and the current market pressures are likely to yield considerable returns in the future.
