October 21, the return of BCMI to the 0.5 zone was interpreted as a cooling phase rather than a peak of the cycle.
Since then, the price of Bitcoin has significantly decreased, and BCMI has fallen along with the price.
This confirms that the market has not only cooled down over time,
but has been reset due to price and on-chain momentum.
Historically, significant low cycle points in 2019 and 2023 were formed when BCMI reached the range of 0.25–0.35.
These levels reflected a full compression of sentiments and a structural reset.
At current levels, the BCMI stands at:
Below equilibrium,
But still significantly above historical lower zones.
From a data-driven perspective, this opens up the possibility that the market is transitioning into a bear phase rather than simply experiencing a correction.
If past patterns repeat, a more sustainable bottom may form only when the BCMI revisits levels from 2019–2023.
This is not a forecast, but a scenario worth considering.
At this stage, the market seems to be in a downward transition rather than a completed recovery.
News is for reference, not investment advice. Please read carefully before making a decision.
