Family, major warning! The latest data has directly torn off the Federal Reserve's 'fig leaf'—the probability of a rate hike in January has plummeted to 13.3%, but this is not good news at all. Instead, it indicates that the high interest rate stalemate will last longer than we imagined, and the 'eye of the storm' in the crypto market is brewing in calmness!
There may be newcomers who don't understand, so let me explain in simple terms: the decline in the probability of a rate hike means that the market is no longer worried about the Federal Reserve continuing to raise rates, but this does not mean the Federal Reserve will lower rates. The current core conflict is the game between 'sticky inflation' and 'economic downturn pressure'—the Federal Reserve is hesitant to easily lower rates for fear of inflation rebounding; but they also dare not continue to raise rates for fear of an economic collapse. In this stalemate, market liquidity will remain tight, and the crypto market will inevitably face a 'trial by fire'.
Here's a set of data I've organized for everyone: Over the past 6 months, the average daily trading volume in the cryptocurrency market has decreased by 30%, especially for mainstream coins like ETH and XRP, which are becoming increasingly illiquid. What does poor liquidity mean? It means that a small amount of capital can trigger large fluctuations; prices might be rising in the morning, only to plummet in the afternoon, making it easy for retail investors to get stuck in deep losses. Former White House economic advisor Hassett said that the Fed's interest rate cuts are 'seriously overdue,' and I strongly agree with this viewpoint. Historically, when economists start to collectively sound the alarm, it often signals a policy shift is on the horizon—it's just a matter of time.
The most critical question now is, how should we respond? My suggestion is to be 'prepared on both fronts': on one hand, for mainstream coins, don't blindly bottom fish; wait for clear stabilization signals to take action, such as when BTC firmly holds a key support level with increased trading volume. On the other hand, keep an eye on some short-term speculative opportunities, but definitely control your position size. Recently, under the low gas environment, small coins related to the Musk concept have been somewhat active; although these assets carry high risks, they offer substantial short-term elasticity, suitable for small capital to experiment, provided you can accept the risk of losing your principal.
I judge that the high interest rate deadlock can last for at most 3-6 months; once economic data shows clear signs of cooling, the Fed will inevitably be forced to change direction. At that time, the cryptocurrency market will experience a strong rebound, but the prerequisite is that you can survive this current period of volatility.
In the future, I will update market dynamics and my operational thoughts daily, breaking down complex data into simple and understandable viewpoints. Following me can not only help you avoid 'pits' in the market but also help you find a place to shelter from the storm before it arrives, and even seize rebound opportunities after the storm! If you currently feel helpless, confused in trading, or want to learn more about cryptocurrency and get the latest cutting-edge information, follow me@标哥说币
