THE PROBABILITY OF BTC RISING AROUND CHRISTMAS IS VERY HIGH
Will Santa Claus deliver gifts to Bitcoin tonight?
Today is December 24, 2025. Before FOMOing into a so-called “Santa Claus Rally,” let’s look back at Christmas performance based on historical data from the past 10 years.
Strong declines: 2017 (bubble burst), 2021 (post-ATH correction).
Sideways movement: 2018, 2019, 2022, 2023. This accounts for the majority.
Strong rally: Only 2020 recorded a true “big pump” that marked the beginning of a new cycle.
Personal outlook for Christmas 2025
Based on price charts and on-chain data, the market is currently in a constructive structure, moving toward a retest or potential breakout above the previous all-time high (ATH). Expectations for a “Santa Claus Rally” are therefore quite elevated.
However, based on historical data, traders should note that December 25 is usually not the most volatile day. The real “Santa Claus effect” often begins after Christmas, when traders return to position themselves for the new year.
