Family, who understands this! The rumors in a bear market are not only numerous but also each one breaks the limits of human imagination. Recently, there has been a ridiculous rumor circulating in the crypto circle: the former founder of LUNA, Do Kwon, who caused countless people to lose everything, allegedly hid a hardware wallet containing 10,000 mainstream coins in a 'private area' that even the prison guards wouldn't think of while being detained!
When I first saw this news, I literally sprayed coffee on my keyboard. It's not about questioning its authenticity; I simply admire the creativity of the person spreading this news, which is more imaginative than the fluctuations in the crypto market. Let me clarify that, as an analyst who has been immersed in the crypto space for 8 years, I never easily believe in such baseless rumors. However, this rumor's ability to ferment wildly in a bear market reveals market sentiment and industry logic that are far more valuable than the rumor itself. Today, I will share with you some insights and discuss how we can avoid 'information traps' in a bear market.
Let’s first talk about the absurdity of this rumor. Not to mention the size of the hardware wallet corresponding to 10,000 mainstream coins, just the feasibility of hiding it in that location is basically zero. More critically, the intensity of the security checks that Do Kwon experienced during his detention was far stricter than we imagined; let alone items like hardware wallets that contain metal and electronic components, even a small piece of paper would be difficult to bring in. So why can such an obviously untenable rumor still spread wildly in the community? The core reasons are two: first, the 'emotional venting demand' during a bear market, and second, 'irrational dissemination under information anxiety.'
This brings us to a typical characteristic of a bear market: when the market lacks a clear logic for rising, investors' attention shifts from 'researching project value' to 'chasing absurd gossip'. After all, the prolonged decline has worn down the patience of many, and rather than worrying about the green candlesticks, it’s more enjoyable to indulge in outrageous gossip, which is a common way to vent emotions. As Do Kwon, the 'number one responsible person' for the LUNA collapse, inherently carries a high level of negative attention, placing the 'hidden coins' narrative, full of dramatic conflict, on him not only satisfies everyone’s imagination of 'bad people facing retribution but with some tricks', but also allows for criticism of the market's cruelty, making it naturally easy to spread widely.
Let me share a practical knowledge point: information dissemination in a bear market often follows the logic of 'absurdity > truth'. I did a small statistic, and found that among the top ten messages disseminated in the community during the bear market, seven were baseless rumors or speculations, while the remaining three were 'over-interpretations' of official announcements. This is because in a bear market, everyone craves 'certainty', and when such certainty cannot be obtained from market trends, many people will pin their hopes on 'insider information' or 'exclusive rumors', even if these messages sound absurd, they are willing to spread them with the mindset of 'better to believe than not'. But in reality, most of these messages are deliberately fabricated by people with ulterior motives, either to attract attention or to take advantage of emotional fluctuations to harvest retail investors.
Take this 'hidden coin rumor' for example; it is highly likely a tactic used by some small platforms or marketing accounts to attract traffic by using highly controversial topics to gain clicks, and then guide readers to pay for 'in-depth analysis'. As ordinary investors, we must learn to discern this type of information: first, check the source; any news without an official source, only 'insider leaks' or 'informed individuals revealing', can be passed over; second, check the logic; just like this rumor, a little thinking about the size of the hardware wallet and the security check process can reveal numerous flaws; finally, check the purpose; if the account spreading the news frequently guides you to click on unfamiliar links or purchase certain products, you must be vigilant.
At this point, some may ask: what else can we do in a bear market besides avoiding pitfalls? Actually, it’s quite simple. Instead of wasting time chasing gossip, it’s better to take this opportunity to ground ourselves, study the underlying logic of quality projects, learn the basic methods of technical analysis, and organize our investment strategies. I always say that a bear market is the best 'charging period'; those who take the time to learn during a bear market often seize real opportunities during a bull market. Meanwhile, those who chase after outrageous gossip will ultimately lose their direction amidst emotional fluctuations and miss out on truly valuable information.
Finally, let me complain one more time: the absurdity of this round of bear market has indeed exceeded my expectations, but the more this is the case, the more rational we must remain. Next time you come across similar outrageous news like 'some big shot hiding coins' or 'some project suddenly skyrocketing', take a moment to ask yourself three questions: Is the source of the news reliable? Is the logic sound? What is the purpose of the disseminator? If you think through these three questions, you can avoid most information traps in a bear market.
Of course, if you have heard other more outrageous bear market gossip, or if you have different opinions on today’s discussion, feel free to leave a comment and share with me! Follow me@帝王说币 #加密市场观察 $BTC
